Howard Archer
Howard Archer
bank belief consumer earnings employment england falling forecast growth hardly overall pressures remain rising softer supportive underlying
The combination of rising unemployment, falling employment and muted earnings growth is hardly supportive for consumer spending. It reinforces our belief that overall growth will be softer than forecast by the Bank of England and that underlying inflationary pressures will remain muted.
borne case christmas consumer cut early emerging hard healthy interest picture rate reasonably seems spending underlying
The underlying picture that seems to be emerging is that consumer spending will be reasonably healthy over the Christmas period. If borne out by hard data, this dilutes the case for an interest rate cut early in the New Year.
central concern further housing interest likely market prices rates reinforce risk send stimulate
This is likely to reinforce the central bank's concern that any further trimming of interest rates could excessively stimulate the housing market and risk send housing prices markedly higher.
accelerate basis believe buyer doubtful floor higher highly house interest keeping likely move prices remain soon start sustained thereby time
This is likely to put a floor under house prices, but we remain highly doubtful that house prices will move substantially higher on a sustained basis any time soon. If house prices start to accelerate markedly, we believe buyer interest will soon diminish, thereby keeping a lid on prices.
domestic euro fragile hanging marks question relatively strength
The euro zone's upturn is still young and relatively fragile with significant question marks still hanging over the long-term strength of domestic demand.
admit cut evidence further guarantees improvement interest looking marked rate rates sector whether
The evidence of marked improvement in the manufacturing sector further guarantees there will be no interest rate cut this Thursday. Indeed, we admit it is looking increasingly questionable whether interest rates will be trimmed further.
bank encourage immediate impression inflation rates report trim view
The immediate impression is that the inflation report is pretty neutral. It does little to encourage the view that the bank could trim rates in the immediate future.
encourage immediate impression inflation rates report trim view
The immediate impression is that the inflation report is pretty neutral, and it does little to encourage the view that the MPC could trim rates in the immediate future.
august consumer core due food fuel higher increase inflation july prices primarily
The increase in inflation in August was primarily due to higher prices for fuel and some food items, while core consumer inflation actually edged back down to 1.7% after spiking up to 1.8% in July from 1.5% in June.
bank decline england interest leaving output rates sway unchanged unlikely
The disappointing decline in manufacturing output is most unlikely to sway the Bank of England from leaving interest rates unchanged on Thursday.
coming contain further inclined monetary months policy remains
All the indications are that the ECB remains inclined to tighten monetary policy further over the coming months to contain inflationary risks.
cutting data interest prompt rates unlikely weak
The GDP data (is) unlikely to be weak enough to prompt the MPC into cutting interest rates in November,
bank basis believe clear contained cutting data early earnings encourage england evidence further future hold immediate interest likely march moderation pay points rates remaining seeks signs sustained wage
The earnings data may encourage the Bank of England to hold off from cutting interest rates in the immediate future as March while it seeks sustained clear evidence that the pay settlements for 2006 are remaining contained (the early signs are that wage moderation is continuing). However, we believe that interest rates are likely to be trimmed by a further 25 basis points by May.
activity current data eventual housing improvement including increased interest latest market move next odds rates strength
The latest data - including the improvement in manufacturing activity and current strength of the housing market - has increased the odds that the eventual next move in interest rates will be up.