Howard Archer
Howard Archer
demand domestic fourth goods imports month oil rose successive suggesting surprised uk upside
UK imports of goods excluding oil ... rose for a fourth successive month in February, and by substantial 4.5 percent, suggesting that domestic demand may have surprised on the upside in the first quarter.
consumer equity mortgage peak reduced since spending weighed
The markedly reduced mortgage equity withdrawal since its fourth-quarter 2003 peak has undoubtedly weighed down significantly on consumer spending since mid-2004.
borne case christmas consumer cut early emerging hard healthy interest picture rate reasonably seems spending underlying
The underlying picture that seems to be emerging is that consumer spending will be reasonably healthy over the Christmas period. If borne out by hard data, this dilutes the case for an interest rate cut early in the New Year.
consumer energy evidence higher increasing inflation late pay price pushed recently starting
This confirms that late in 2005 there was still no evidence that pay was starting to be pushed up by recently higher consumer price inflation and increasing energy bills.
consumer energy feeding high housing looks months oil prices remain round second sidelines spending strength
The MPC could remain on the sidelines for some months to come as it monitors the strength of consumer spending and the housing market, and also looks to see if high oil and energy prices are feeding through to have second round inflationary effects.
bank belief consumer england optimistic retail retreat stunning
This is a really stunning retreat in retail sales. It reinforces our belief that the Bank of England is too optimistic about consumer spending.
although bank consumer cut door early england interest keeps levels open prefer rate spending strength wage wait
This (CPI data) very much keeps the door open for an interest rate cut in February, although the Bank of England may still prefer to wait while it monitors the strength of consumer spending and wage settlement levels early in 2006.
consumer continue costs domestic high input intense relatively subdued
Relatively subdued consumer spending, intense domestic and international competition, and high input costs continue to dampen ... the sector.
belief consumer february fourth performance quarter relatively seen spending strong survey sustain unable
The February CBI survey reinforces our belief that consumer spending will be unable to sustain the relatively strong performance seen in the fourth quarter of 2005.
domestic euro fragile hanging marks question relatively strength
The euro zone's upturn is still young and relatively fragile with significant question marks still hanging over the long-term strength of domestic demand.
bank decline england interest leaving output rates sway unchanged unlikely
The disappointing decline in manufacturing output is most unlikely to sway the Bank of England from leaving interest rates unchanged on Thursday.
conclusive evidence pay remaining sustained
The MPC still has to see conclusive sustained evidence that 2006 pay settlements are remaining contained.
boost europe feed growth hoping improving recent signs sustained uk western
Going forward, UK exporters will be fervently hoping that recent signs of improving growth in Western Europe will be sustained and will increasingly feed through to boost exports,
below data features headline positive
Below the headline data there are some positive features that should not be overlooked.