Howard Archer
Howard Archer
demand domestic fourth goods imports month oil rose successive suggesting surprised uk upside
UK imports of goods excluding oil ... rose for a fourth successive month in February, and by substantial 4.5 percent, suggesting that domestic demand may have surprised on the upside in the first quarter.
consumer energy evidence higher increasing inflation late pay price pushed recently starting
This confirms that late in 2005 there was still no evidence that pay was starting to be pushed up by recently higher consumer price inflation and increasing energy bills.
activity confidence floor house housing increasing interest likely market rate rising
Activity is benefiting from August's interest rate cut, increasing confidence in the housing market and still rising employment. This is likely to put a floor under house prices.
below data features headline positive
Below the headline data there are some positive features that should not be overlooked.
consumer equity mortgage peak reduced since spending weighed
The markedly reduced mortgage equity withdrawal since its fourth-quarter 2003 peak has undoubtedly weighed down significantly on consumer spending since mid-2004.
accelerate basis believe buyer doubtful floor higher highly house interest keeping likely move prices remain soon start sustained thereby time
This is likely to put a floor under house prices, but we remain highly doubtful that house prices will move substantially higher on a sustained basis any time soon. If house prices start to accelerate markedly, we believe buyer interest will soon diminish, thereby keeping a lid on prices.
boosts clear coming december demand domestic economic hopes improvement kick months sentiment support
The clear improvement in economic sentiment in December boosts hopes that domestic demand will increasingly kick in over the coming months to support growth.
appears chain contain continuing effects energy high oil pressures round second street strong supply
It appears that strong competitive pressures on the high street and through the supply chain are continuing to contain any second round inflationary effects of high oil and energy prices.
activity adds annual buyer cent climb degree evidence house housing increased inflation limited low market november october per price prices recent recently reported stronger
The climb in annual house price inflation to 2.5 per cent in November from a nine-year low of 1.8 per cent in October reported by the ODPM adds to the recent evidence that house prices have firmed to a limited degree recently amid stronger housing market activity and increased buyer interest.
appears boost needed sales
It appears that significant discounting is still needed to boost sales volumes.
borne case christmas consumer cut early emerging hard healthy interest picture rate reasonably seems spending underlying
The underlying picture that seems to be emerging is that consumer spending will be reasonably healthy over the Christmas period. If borne out by hard data, this dilutes the case for an interest rate cut early in the New Year.
budget economic key low seems terms
In economic terms at least, Wednesday's budget seems set to be a very low key affair.
data gains house prices provides sharp support sustain time unable view
The Nationwide data provides support for our long-held view that house prices will be unable to sustain sharp gains for some time to come.
admit cut evidence further guarantees improvement interest looking marked rate rates sector whether
The evidence of marked improvement in the manufacturing sector further guarantees there will be no interest rate cut this Thursday. Indeed, we admit it is looking increasingly questionable whether interest rates will be trimmed further.