John Silvia
John Silvia
driving due expected factor good host looking numbers oil optimism people retail sales warmer
I think it's just oil and optimism about the New Year. I think oil is the driving factor due to the warmer weather, but people are now looking for better than expected (fourth-quarter) earnings, better than expected retail sales number. There's a host of good numbers out there.
ahead bullet fed good increases inflation market meetings next number payroll
The Fed is going to look at this number and go full-steam ahead with 25-basis-point increases at its next two meetings to keep inflation in check, ... This is a pretty good payroll number for September. The market dodged a bullet with this report.
corporate fed good news
It's good news for the economy, it's good news for the Fed and it's good news for corporate profits,
continued economic employment gains good interest limited news rising risk supports upside view
This good news supports the view of continued economic and employment gains with limited upside risk of rising interest rates.
confusion create good labor leads policy public sides stories telling useful
It does create a lot confusion and leads to different sides telling different stories -- not useful for making good public policy for the labor market,
defense goods middle quarter spending tends terms
Defense spending tends to be very lumpy in terms of the quarter in which it hits. When you're in the middle of a war, you have to have goods delivered. But even if it had been 3.6, it would still be respectable growth.
capital despite explain factory floor goods hiring machines orders putting seem service smart
Firms are substituting capital -- particularly high-tech capital -- for labor. They're putting smart machines on the factory floor and in the service industry. That may explain why high-tech orders for capital goods have been going up, despite the fact that manufacturers don't seem to be hiring a lot of people.
adjustment change consumers downward expected gasoline increase overall pace permanent saving spending view
They view the gasoline thing as temporary, and that's important because it didn't change their overall pace of spending. And that's a different kind of psychology. If it was a permanent increase in gasoline prices, then you would have expected consumers to make a more permanent adjustment downward in their spending and saving rate.
tough
I think it's way overdue for this administration to get tough on spending,
distort hazardous hiring months patterns school summer timing weather
Summer months can be particularly hazardous for forecasters, ... The timing of the end of the school year, seasonal hiring patterns and even weather can distort the monthly figure.
iraq negative positive war
In no way is that positive for the administration in the fall. We are going to be in Iraq at the same time. It's war and the (slowing) economy. That has to be negative for the administration.
below care control market price rent sort york
If you're going to set a price below market price, you're going to have to have some sort of rationing. I don't care if it's gasoline, prescription drugs or rent control in New York City.
consensus fed goes neutral position
I would say the consensus is that the Fed goes to a neutral position on inflation.
below bounce clearly gains higher impact job month next oil prices reflect slower specific
Job gains were clearly below expectations and trend. There may be some bounce back next month in specific sectors. Slower job gains may also reflect the impact of higher oil prices and uncertainty in the spring.