John Silvia
John Silvia
experience reality
The reality is someone new is going to have to take over the job, and that new person is never going to have as much experience as Greenspan,
economic employment growth labor recovery relationship time
This is really the first post-NAFTA, post-WTO economic recovery we've ever had in this country. Because of the globalization of the labor market, the relationship between economic growth and employment is different this time than it has been in the past.
economic legs quarter recovery
The economic recovery has legs -- those of a pony, not yet a quarter horse.
adjusted christmas expected faster people sales signal weaker
People have adjusted faster than we expected to the way they use credit. This could be a signal that Christmas sales may be weaker than expected.
played washington
They are all pretty well-known. They have all played in Washington circles.
dismissed months six
You could have dismissed it six months ago as a one-time hit,
employment evidence far gain suggest
The evidence so far would suggest we're probably going to have a below-average employment gain in this recovery.
storm
If you get a storm like this every 20 years,
employment eve markets solid
Employment markets were solid on the eve of destruction.
forward trying
Going forward there is a sense of what are we trying to do here?
fed follow jobs reactive
They (the Fed governors) are going to follow the jobs report. They're not going to be proactive. They're going to be reactive to the data,
adjustment change consumers downward expected gasoline increase overall pace permanent saving spending view
They view the gasoline thing as temporary, and that's important because it didn't change their overall pace of spending. And that's a different kind of psychology. If it was a permanent increase in gasoline prices, then you would have expected consumers to make a more permanent adjustment downward in their spending and saving rate.
economy fit jobs labor market mold
Today's labor market does not fit the mold of the old models. The economy has recovered, and many of the old jobs are gone.
drag economic expecting flat fourth growth housing quarter second third
We're expecting housing to be flat in the second quarter and a drag on economic growth in the third quarter and fourth quarter.