Mark Vitner
Mark Vitner
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In the '90s we had irrational exuberance. Now we have excessive caution. And that's the biggest headwind this economy is facing, ... The lack of strong employment growth is one more reason for businesses to be cautious and can be a self-fulfilling prophesy.
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The federal government is going to spend whatever they need to, to make some visible progress before next year's mid-term elections, ... And what that's going to do to an economy that's already at full employment is drive up the cost of cement, drive up the cost of steel, drive up the cost of labor.
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They would like to raise rates, but right now, keeping rates a little too low would cause the least harm in the economy. If they raise rates after this weak employment report, people will be hollering. George Bush would be hollering the loudest.
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The more important figure (than confidence) for the economy is what consumers actually do. Consumers are not sitting on their wallets just yet. But that is about the only bright spot in this morning's report. With consumers concerned about both their stock portfolios and employment prospects, spending will likely rise a little less rapidly this fall.
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They rely on a lot of other things. When you look at economy in its totality, virtually everything is stronger than the employment data.
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But pension accounting is awfully complicated and it's an awfully big company, so it's not surprising the markets would get a little spooked by it.
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It continues to defy all the expectations of doom in the housing market. Demand for housing still remains quite strong and this year will be a record year for single-family construction.
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A rebound in motor vehicle sales accounts for much of December's 0.7 percent rise in overall retail sales and is also responsible for much of November's upward revision.
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If we see an increase in rent we could really see inflation numbers pick up in a meaningful way.
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The federal response has been much larger than we thought it would be, ... And the money is being spent much more quickly.
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The relief money is coming in much faster than it has for any other natural disaster that I can remember. That should help minimize some of the hit on consumer spending,
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It gives the Fed a little more breathing room on interest rates, that's the most I can say.
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In the end, we can work this out. It is $200 billion in spending for a $12 trillion economy, ... It's just a matter of how we finance it, not whether or not we can afford to do it.
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If folks correctly see the economy is booming in Florida, they'll make their way down to the Sunshine State and take a job. Maybe they'll stick around a while and fix a roof while they're here.