Mark Vitner
Mark Vitner
improvement looks points probable rate
The improvement in the unemployment rate has been very steady, which looks very believable. It points to a probable undercount in (payroll) employment.
accelerate annual below continue core exception fed few gradually interest means months next past percent policy pressures price pushing rate recent rose slightly three trends unlikely
Recent trends show the price pressures are well contained, with the exception of oil, ... The core CPI rose at just a 1.8 percent annual rate over the past three months, which is slightly below the 1.9 percent year-to-year gain. That means the core CPI is unlikely to accelerate in the next few months and allows the Fed to continue its policy of just gradually pushing up interest rates.
cause doubt fed next point quarter raise rates report strong three
I don't think there's much doubt the Fed will raise rates by a quarter point each of the next three meetings. Even a really strong report probably won't cause them to raise rates by a half-point.
cause coming conclude economic expected fed heels inflation interest june leave news rates recent unchanged weaker
Coming on the heels of the recent spate of weaker economic reports, the better than expected inflation news will probably cause the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged at their June FOMC meeting, ... It is still way too soon, however, to conclude that the Fed is done.
boost businesses costs energy fed growth hiking hire hiring interest labor looks markets output rates recent reluctant
The most recent acceleration in productivity growth looks like it was cyclically driven, ... Even with output soaring, many businesses were reluctant to boost hiring because the Fed was hiking interest rates and energy costs were surging. Even if businesses wanted to hire more workers, many could not because the labor markets were so tight.
disturb hear interest rates sure
I'm not too sure we're going to hear that much that will disturb markets, but I'm sure he'll say at least something hinting that long-term interest rates are too low,
commentary early economic economy federal funds growth interpret minutes neutral potential rate soft stages
You could even interpret the minutes to read that economic growth has already slowed to its long-run potential and that the federal funds rate is already at a neutral level. The Fed's commentary describes an economy that is nearing or already in the early stages of a soft landing.
bush cause employment george harm keeping low people raise rates weak
They would like to raise rates, but right now, keeping rates a little too low would cause the least harm in the economy. If they raise rates after this weak employment report, people will be hollering. George Bush would be hollering the loudest.
baby dunk energy likely move prices raise rates remain slam
As long as energy prices remain high, they're likely to move in baby steps. I just don't think it's a slam dunk that they raise rates in December.
below carolina familiar finish hang likely mean near north percent position rate somewhere year
The unemployment rate is likely to hang around 4.5 percent and finish the year somewhere near 4 percent. That would mean that North Carolina would be back in the familiar position of having an unemployment rate below that of the nation.
core economy inflation peaked rate
The economy may stagnate but it's not going to inflate. The core rate of inflation probably peaked in March.
august basis beyond both cut fed october points rates
The Fed will probably cut rates in both August and October by 25 basis points (a quarter-percentage point) each. We really don't know what they will do beyond that.
difficult fed follows leave meet rates strength unchanged
If this kind of strength follows through to other reports, it will become very difficult for the Fed to leave rates unchanged when they meet on Aug. 22nd,
above below came gas higher huge interest knock market number prices rates relief rising sign
There was a huge sign of relief when the number came in above 100, and that's why the market rallied, ... There was a thought that the combination of rising interest rates and higher gas prices would knock it below 100.