Mark Vitner
Mark Vitner
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The problem with the November employment numbers is hiring for the holiday season. It's hard to get a gauge of what it's going to be. They do a seasonal adjustment to the number to account for that, but the seasonal adjustment causes wider swings. And this year Thanksgiving came later in the month, so hiring might have started after the November data was collected.
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The prices paid is still way up there, inflation is still running a little hot, enough that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates.
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We're shifting from an economy driven by consumer spending and home building to one driven by business investment.
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We're seeing both the quantity and quality of the jobs being created improving.
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The improvement in the unemployment rate has been very steady, which looks very believable. It points to a probable undercount in (payroll) employment.
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Recent trends show the price pressures are well contained, with the exception of oil, ... The core CPI rose at just a 1.8 percent annual rate over the past three months, which is slightly below the 1.9 percent year-to-year gain. That means the core CPI is unlikely to accelerate in the next few months and allows the Fed to continue its policy of just gradually pushing up interest rates.
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I don't think there's much doubt the Fed will raise rates by a quarter point each of the next three meetings. Even a really strong report probably won't cause them to raise rates by a half-point.
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Coming on the heels of the recent spate of weaker economic reports, the better than expected inflation news will probably cause the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged at their June FOMC meeting, ... It is still way too soon, however, to conclude that the Fed is done.
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The most recent acceleration in productivity growth looks like it was cyclically driven, ... Even with output soaring, many businesses were reluctant to boost hiring because the Fed was hiking interest rates and energy costs were surging. Even if businesses wanted to hire more workers, many could not because the labor markets were so tight.
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I'm not too sure we're going to hear that much that will disturb markets, but I'm sure he'll say at least something hinting that long-term interest rates are too low,
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You could even interpret the minutes to read that economic growth has already slowed to its long-run potential and that the federal funds rate is already at a neutral level. The Fed's commentary describes an economy that is nearing or already in the early stages of a soft landing.
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They would like to raise rates, but right now, keeping rates a little too low would cause the least harm in the economy. If they raise rates after this weak employment report, people will be hollering. George Bush would be hollering the loudest.
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As long as energy prices remain high, they're likely to move in baby steps. I just don't think it's a slam dunk that they raise rates in December.
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But pension accounting is awfully complicated and it's an awfully big company, so it's not surprising the markets would get a little spooked by it.