Philip Shaw
Philip Shaw
call continued couple cut degree growth interest justifying lower mean nervous next rate ready sluggish throw
We are increasingly nervous about our call for a quarter-point rate cut in February, even if we are not ready to throw in the towel. Continued sluggish growth should mean the next couple of years see a degree of disinflation, justifying lower interest rates.
both chance charged components couple input month next price prices rates
Both the input price and prices charged components are up on the month as well so this reduces the chance that rates will come down over the next couple of months.
chances hike next virtually week
We think the chances of a hike next week are virtually zero.
boost general given next price retailers share statement
The Next statement has given a boost to general retailers and the Next share price in particular.
brought month move next rates soon surprised whether
The next move in rates will be a cut. There is some uncertainty over whether rates will be brought down as soon as next month but we would not be at all surprised if it happens.
cannot changing economy economy-and-economics five growing next pace quarters situation year
The economy has been growing at a sub-par pace for five quarters now and we cannot see that situation changing over the next year or so.
below changing five growth main next output point quarters though trend year
The main point though is that output growth has now been below trend for five quarters and we can't see that changing over the next year or so,
although bit fall inflation month next numbers picking signs time wage
The fall in unemployment is a bit of a surprise. There are no signs for the time being that wage inflation is picking up although the numbers next month will be critical.
cut door next open perhaps rates soon
We think the door is still open for a cut in rates over the next two months, perhaps as soon as next month.
again although caution early happen inflation interest next rates until view
This underpins our view that interest rates will have to come down again although the MPC caution on inflation suggests that's not going to happen until early next year.
balance base believe cent data hold per rates remain rest risks trends trigger turned weak
Overall, it would take some very weak data to trigger another cut. While this is not impossible, especially if consumption trends are weak, the balance of risks has turned and we now believe that base rates will remain on hold at 4.5 per cent for the rest of the year.
base hold rates remain rest view
Our view is that base rates will remain on hold for the rest of the year, but that if there were to be a move, it would be down.
base continues course economy percent present rates remain rest unless view
Our view continues to be that unless the economy veers sharply from its present course one way or the other, base rates will remain at 4.5 percent for the rest of the year.
bang line market
The announcement was bang in line with market expectations.