Philip Shaw
Philip Shaw
balance base believe cent data hold per rates remain rest risks trends trigger turned weak
Overall, it would take some very weak data to trigger another cut. While this is not impossible, especially if consumption trends are weak, the balance of risks has turned and we now believe that base rates will remain on hold at 4.5 per cent for the rest of the year.
base hold rates remain rest view
Our view is that base rates will remain on hold for the rest of the year, but that if there were to be a move, it would be down.
base continues course economy percent present rates remain rest unless view
Our view continues to be that unless the economy veers sharply from its present course one way or the other, base rates will remain at 4.5 percent for the rest of the year.
call continued couple cut degree growth interest justifying lower mean nervous next rate ready sluggish throw
We are increasingly nervous about our call for a quarter-point rate cut in February, even if we are not ready to throw in the towel. Continued sluggish growth should mean the next couple of years see a degree of disinflation, justifying lower interest rates.
coming committee continue debate downside output rates received surprises upside
The debate over rates will continue to intensify over the coming months, not least as the committee has received downside surprises from output and upside surprises from inflation.
almost base certainly hold rates remain
Base rates will almost certainly remain on hold at 4.5%.
both chance charged components couple input month next price prices rates
Both the input price and prices charged components are up on the month as well so this reduces the chance that rates will come down over the next couple of months.
although bank clear hold optimistic planning rates view
Although it is clear the Bank is planning to keep rates on hold for now, our view is the MPC is still too optimistic on growth.
above cut economy grow interest rates reluctant signs
If there are any signs that the economy will grow at or above trend, then the MPC will be even more reluctant to cut interest rates again.
brought month move next rates soon surprised whether
The next move in rates will be a cut. There is some uncertainty over whether rates will be brought down as soon as next month but we would not be at all surprised if it happens.
call clearly expected figures interest july near pressures question raise rates whether
The figures are significantly better than expected and may call into question whether the MPC will raise interest rates at its July meeting. Clearly there are no inflationary pressures in the near term.
although core expected figures improvement petrol prices rate
The figures are better than expected and although petrol prices have come down, there is an improvement in core rate of inflation.
balance expect hold inflation last likely month news past rates remain report steady strong turned
Last month's inflation report was about as strong an endorsement of steady rates as one is likely to see. The balance of news has turned around significantly over the past month and we now expect rates to remain on hold at 4.5% for the remainder of the year.
inflation last likely rates report steady strong
Last month's inflation report ... (was) about as strong an endorsement of steady rates as one is likely to see.