Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
bank central consumer consumers continues encourage giving inflation lower numbers report spending whatever
The CPI report continues to be encouraging. These numbers are stimulating consumer spending by giving consumers more spending power. At the same time, lower inflation will also encourage the central bank to do whatever they need to do.
bank central consumer consumers continues encourage giving inflation lower numbers report spending whatever
The CPI report continues to be encouraging, ... These numbers are stimulating consumer spending by giving consumers more spending power. At the same time, lower inflation will also encourage the central bank to do whatever they need to do.
factors good
There are a lot of good factors out there.
admit continue eye fairly far federal funds greenspan notion percentage quarter quickly raise rate rates risen
Yes, Greenspan does admit the obvious, that the real federal funds rate has risen considerably, but he quickly concludes that the rate 'remains fairly low'. This is Fed-speak for the notion that the Fed will continue to raise rates by a quarter percentage point...as far as the eye can see.
anywhere conclude hard labor market near rise
With the rise in the unemployment rate, it is hard to conclude that the labor market is anywhere near out of the woods.
clearly explosive puts question rest whether
This puts to rest any question of whether or not we're going to have an explosive recovery. We're clearly not.
arm concerns consumers direction excited gets holding notion otherwise provides seen shot
This provides a big shot in the arm to the notion that geopolitical concerns were holding back the economy. Otherwise we wouldn't have seen such a big pop. This probably exaggerates how excited consumers will be after all is said and done, but it gets the direction right.
amount companies earnings economic economy exaggerate growing high multiple pressure problem
The problem was that we had earnings growing at a high multiple of economic activity, and that wasn't right. There was a considerable amount of pressure for companies to exaggerate economic activity, but the economy was doing just fine.
confirmed minds numbers
Those are the numbers that confirmed in their minds that we were in recession.
confidence consumer course makers policy reverse threatens weaker worry
Weaker consumer confidence threatens to reverse the course of the recovery. That's why policy makers will be so cautious. They don't really have to worry about the economy's fundamentals, but they do have to worry about confidence.
economic equity expansion home housing left market picking prices reason rising sale starts
Real new home sale prices and existing-home sale prices have been rising very sharply. When that starts to give way and we don't have the equity market picking up where housing left off, that's another reason the economic expansion will be gradual.
consumers costs energy higher outlets shown studies switch tend
Our own studies have shown that consumers tend to switch over to non-store outlets in times of higher energy costs .
In some sense, that's good. But it's a double-edged sword.
expect fed moves rate signal words
In other words, before the end of 2002, the Fed should signal that their upward rate moves were just a warm-up for what we can expect in 2003.