Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
certain confidence consumer hence shutting terrible tragedy
This terrible tragedy is certain to severely dampen consumer confidence and hence have the possibility of shutting down the consumer.
consumer delivering extent good increase movements news rate rather report sentiment
To the extent that consumer sentiment reacts to movements in the unemployment rate rather than the meager increase in non-farm payrolls, we have to take this ... report as delivering good news to the troops.
comments fed interest raise rush
Today's comments will go a long way to dispelling the idea that the Fed is in a rush to raise short-term interest rates.
apparel climate energy high labor likely overall played prices role soft weather
While weather played a role in soft apparel sales, the high energy prices impacted overall sales. Net-net, the climate is likely to get better with improvements in the labor market.
auction came lethal levels somewhat stock yields
Yields at the auction came at levels that were not lethal to the stock market. Overall, it is somewhat encouraging for equities.
sentiment
With sentiment under considerable short- and long-term pressure, we know that 2002 is not going to be anything like 2001 for the consumer.
current employment faster growth likely trend until
We are not likely to see faster employment growth until the current growth trend in productivity slows significantly.
capital early eventually healthier pave profits recovery spending stages
We may very well be in the early stages of a profits recovery that will eventually pave the way for healthier capital spending growth,
arising gains loss month possible reflective sector service sure temporary trend truly wait
We may want to wait for another month or so to be sure that such gains were truly reflective of a upward trend and not just a possible distortion arising from the temporary 'hurricane-related' loss of many lower-paying service sector jobs,
add confident empty environment growth inventory knows rising shelves suggest
The plunge in inventory accumulation does suggest that firms are not confident enough to add merchandise to their shelves. But they will not be able to do this indefinitely because everyone knows that sporting empty shelves in a rising growth environment is not prudent.
growth line necessary normally percent produce
We're not going to get the 1.5 percent productivity growth necessary to produce all those jobs. Such a fall-off would be out of line with what normally happens.
core cost early energy increases jump limited longer mature pass power pricing rest saw seeing today whenever
We still see limited penetration into the rest of the economy. It's too early to say you're seeing pricing power to pass on the energy cost increases just because you saw just a jump in the core PPI number. The world has changed. In the old traditional world, whenever you had mature expansion, you had pricing power. Today with globalization, that's no longer the case.
challenges confidence consumer continue economy labor market numbers pose quarter serious soft
We still have a labor market that's deteriorating, and today's numbers epitomize that. We're going to continue to see deterioration, which will pose serious challenges to consumer confidence and keep the economy soft for another quarter or two.
admit continue eye fairly far federal funds greenspan notion percentage quarter quickly raise rate rates risen
Yes, Greenspan does admit the obvious, that the real federal funds rate has risen considerably, but he quickly concludes that the rate 'remains fairly low'. This is Fed-speak for the notion that the Fed will continue to raise rates by a quarter percentage point...as far as the eye can see.