Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
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With a fall in the yearly rise in average hourly earnings, both investors and policy-makers can avoid pushing the panic button for a little while longer. In other words, while a (May interest rate hike) remains all but assured, this report did little to nail further tightening beyond this stage.
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The decline in the length of the average work week ... tells us this leading employment indicator does not foreshadow any immediate end to this general pattern of weakness in the labor market.
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If we see strong average hourly earnings, that would be bad for stocks and bonds because it puts the inflation bogey-man on the front burner.
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The pace of average hourly earnings continues to rise at just a tepid pace leading me to believe that this overall report is a very monetary policy-friendly report.
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Based on these trends, it is not too difficult to conclude that the average consumer is probably a bit overextended from a credit standpoint,
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When we see a change in payrolls that is dominated by a glitch in the seasonal factor, no change in average hourly earnings and only a small gain in the length in the average workweek, we know that the message is encouraging but not exhilarating,
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Although the BLS failed to provide an estimate of what the hurricane did to this report, my research does show that in nine out of the last 10 largest hurricanes, payrolls softened by an average of 120,000,
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The best way to read the numbers is going to be to average the two months' data because the hurricanes are distorting the wider picture, ... But excluding the hurricane effects, we're doing 190,000 to 200,000 new jobs a month and that's quite healthy.
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The average hourly earnings figures were truly the spoiler of this report, ... It tells us that the Fed may now have to start becoming more vigilant about upcoming price pressures.
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About 70 percent of the average cost of producing a product is wages,
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I think we'll see a clear acceleration of refund payments as we get closer to the April deadline, when the checks really start to flow. People tend to procrastinate.
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I think we will get that bump. I think this is temporary. My forecast at the beginning of the year still stands for 2.5 million new jobs. But I certainly do see a soft patch here.
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I think a seasonal factor is part of the issue here, but you can't discount it all. Look at what is happening with chain store sales. They've been pretty weak. Some of it (weak retail employment) is real.
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I think it was interesting that sales fell despite the fact that we had limited auto incentives in November. It raises the question of what is likely to happen once these incentives disappear entirely.