Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
cautionary consumer impressive moving note numbers terror wake
The resiliency of the consumer is very impressive in the wake of so many terror warnings. One cautionary note is that, moving forward, these numbers may soften, as those warnings are still coming.
argue borrowing capacity consumer excess higher income ratio side
The consumer credit-to-disposable income ratio is much higher than it was in the '50s, so you can't argue that there is as much excess capacity on the borrowing side as there was in the '50s,
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Our own studies have shown that consumers tend to switch over to non-store outlets in times of higher energy costs .
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All the focus is on the core number. The Fed said yesterday that energy has not worked its way down to core consumer prices.
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Lower energy prices will cushion the blow to the economy from the higher prices so far. Psychologically, it helps the consumer and that means the hit to the economy will not be as great as feared earlier.
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If you have productivity growing faster than the economy, how can you expect demand for labor to be all that strong? I'm still hopeful that unemployment won't go much higher than 6.2 percent or 6.3 percent, but where we'll peak is not as important as when we turn around. If we sort of linger at 6.2 percent, that will put some downward pressure on consumer spending.
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The market doesn't want to see too much exuberance on the part of consumers in order to keep the central bank at bay.
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I think the risk is the downside, not the upside, ... I think the markets are fairly nervous about the prospects for growth. They're going to be dissecting the number. If we have slower than expected consumer spending and stronger than expected inventory growth, that's not going to bode well for the next quarter or so.
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The resilient consumer and an attempt by businesses to jump-start and keep the economy going -- the combination of those two forces gave us a bounce-back in economic activity.
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These numbers confirm the notion that consumer spending, which has been so resilient, is under some threat. With investor sentiment so weak and the labor market continuing to deteriorate, consumer confidence had only one way to go -- lower.
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Consumer confidence warned us already that this would be mild recession,
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The bottom line is that consumers experienced a soft patch in the first quarter and they appear to be emerging from it,
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Consumers at this juncture are fighting the forces of the economic slowdown with patriotism, ... As economic conditions continue to deteriorate, this challenge will become greater.
challenge conditions consumers continue economic fighting forces juncture
Consumers at this juncture are fighting the forces of economic slowdown with patriotism. As economic conditions continue to deteriorate, this challenge will become greater.