Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
administer economy-and-economics point policy time
They (Fed policy makers) know at any point of the time they may need to administer CPR to this economy.
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The Federal Reserve and energy prices really have the fate of the economy in their hands.
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I don't have any doubt it's going to bite. The debate is whether it'll bite enough to cause a recession, and I don't think so. Because the economy remains fairly strong, it can withstand these one-two punches. If we were growing at 1 or 2 percent and we got this same one-two punches, the ref would tell everyone to go home.
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But what we've seen is if you hit the economy over the head enough times with higher energy prices and short-term interest rate hikes, it reacts.
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A lot of players in the economy are realizing this is a sustainable expansion. That's a factor you must have in order to support increased hiring.
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This is actually a good report because it really tells us the economy is healthy.
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Even when people thought the economy would collapse because of the hurricane, it didn't.
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This is an economy coming back, but it's going to be a moderate recovery. But we should not despair, since a balanced recovery has the best chance of turning into a longer-lasting recovery.
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I think a 0.2 percent decline in economic growth due Katrina's impact on oil and the regional economy is a realistic assumption,
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Lower energy prices will cushion the blow to the economy from the higher prices so far. Psychologically, it helps the consumer and that means the hit to the economy will not be as great as feared earlier.
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Since the beginning of this year, the economy has been recovering gradually....In that environment, a gradually rising stock market would be justified. Instead we got a sharp decline. Can we justify this rally? Absolutely....But we can't justify a thousand-point increase every week.
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Certainly, we see some encouragement. We see an economy that's still weak... but not falling off the cliff. The notion that we're not going to have a recession is confirmed by these numbers.
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Although it's not particularly good news for the housing market, the fact that you're seeing weakness here shows that monetary policy is working and the (Fed) would not have to blunt the economy with more hikes than the market has been anticipating.
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I think these numbers have the potential to drive the Fed to do an inter-meeting cut. The economy is slowing down, and I think we'll see more of this before it's over.