Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
chairman coffin cut greenspan move nail notion numbers percentage regular wish
I think these numbers pretty much put a nail in the coffin of the notion that a 75 basis-point (three-quarters of a percentage point) cut will occur. I think (Fed Chairman Alan) Greenspan will get his wish for a move at the regular meeting, but they will do a 50 basis-point (half-point) cut.
accept bit consumer drives enter notion quarter question realistic sales turn
There's no question unemployment is what drives consumer confidence, which in turn drives consumer spending. We have to be realistic and accept the notion that, as we enter the first quarter and December, these sales are going to get a bit weaker. We're still in a recession.
claims confirm fact improve notion numbers sometime
These claims numbers confirm the notion that things may improve sometime in the future. The fact that we didn't go over 400,000 was very encouraging.
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Yes, Greenspan does admit the obvious, that the real federal funds rate has risen considerably, but he quickly concludes that the rate 'remains fairly low'. This is Fed-speak for the notion that the Fed will continue to raise rates by a quarter percentage point...as far as the eye can see.
arm concerns consumers direction excited gets holding notion otherwise provides seen shot
This provides a big shot in the arm to the notion that geopolitical concerns were holding back the economy. Otherwise we wouldn't have seen such a big pop. This probably exaggerates how excited consumers will be after all is said and done, but it gets the direction right.
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Certainly, we see some encouragement. We see an economy that's still weak... but not falling off the cliff. The notion that we're not going to have a recession is confirmed by these numbers.
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These numbers confirm the notion that consumer spending, which has been so resilient, is under some threat. With investor sentiment so weak and the labor market continuing to deteriorate, consumer confidence had only one way to go -- lower.
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The trade deficit coming in a bit wider suggests growth is going to be a lot slower. It throws more support on the notion that there is more uncertainty in the short run. But that's premature speculation.
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I think we'll see a clear acceleration of refund payments as we get closer to the April deadline, when the checks really start to flow. People tend to procrastinate.
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I think we will get that bump. I think this is temporary. My forecast at the beginning of the year still stands for 2.5 million new jobs. But I certainly do see a soft patch here.
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I think a seasonal factor is part of the issue here, but you can't discount it all. Look at what is happening with chain store sales. They've been pretty weak. Some of it (weak retail employment) is real.
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I think it was interesting that sales fell despite the fact that we had limited auto incentives in November. It raises the question of what is likely to happen once these incentives disappear entirely.
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I think this report clearly shows that we got a hurricane bounce back. It also puts the possibility of a Fed rate hike in December back in play.
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I think this employment report shows that the laws of gravity do apply to monetary policy,