Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
bite corporate costs either energy higher impact lower prices raise starting
The impact of higher energy prices is starting to bite corporate America. It's either going to raise costs or lower demand.
costs energy goes increase reasons various
It could be the weather. Distribution costs increase with the cost of energy. Fertilizer goes up when energy goes up. There are various reasons for the surge.
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The Federal Reserve and energy prices really have the fate of the economy in their hands.
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But what we've seen is if you hit the economy over the head enough times with higher energy prices and short-term interest rate hikes, it reacts.
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Our own studies have shown that consumers tend to switch over to non-store outlets in times of higher energy costs .
conditions energy labor market movement prices seen
The movement in labor market conditions is a lot more important than the movement in energy prices. Only when labor market conditions are deteriorating have we historically seen that energy prices have an impact.
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All the focus is on the core number. The Fed said yesterday that energy has not worked its way down to core consumer prices.
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Lower energy prices will cushion the blow to the economy from the higher prices so far. Psychologically, it helps the consumer and that means the hit to the economy will not be as great as feared earlier.
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As the natural displacement from other consumption goods toward energy goods occurs with rises in energy prices, it is easy to conclude that our natural wealth and standard of living will inevitably decline.
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These results suggest that the current low energy prices should serve as an important and positive boost to overall economic growth.
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The significant number of headwinds such as rising energy prices and the prospects of rising short-term rates are taking their toll on the economy,
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The Fed will raise rates, but they're aware that higher energy prices might do some of their job. And inflation is not so high that they need to panic.
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Everybody knows energy prices are out of control. But to see the core number coming in line with expectations and the year-over-year figure actually declining tells me the Fed is back on plan to move at a gradual pace (of rate increases.)
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Essentially, the energy prices outlook offers almost a lose, lose scenario. Bad news for inflation if they rise and bad news for the economy if they rise too much.