Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
evidence next quarter recession recovery sector seeing solid start
We'll start seeing solid and significant evidence of recovery in the manufacturing sector in the first quarter next year. It was the first to go into recession and will be the first to come out.
actual budding control evidence exactly fear fed greatest likely lost moderate recovery shows
Going into this report, many analysts greatest fear was that the Fed may have lost some control of this budding recovery. The actual evidence shows that a moderate recovery is exactly what we are likely to get.
although employment evidence gradual moderate months provides recovery report resembling stronger support
Although today's employment report provides little evidence of anything resembling a double-dip recovery, it does provide stronger support for the onset of a gradual to a moderate recovery in the months ahead.
clear continue evidence rising sector
clear evidence that this sector will not continue rising forever.
cut economy evidence expect far growth headed information justify months slower
It's unreasonable to expect that the information we have so far could justify another cut right now. We need to see more evidence the economy is headed for much slower growth in the months ahead.
april checks clear closer people start tend
I think we'll see a clear acceleration of refund payments as we get closer to the April deadline, when the checks really start to flow. People tend to procrastinate.
beginning certainly forecast million patch soft stands year
I think we will get that bump. I think this is temporary. My forecast at the beginning of the year still stands for 2.5 million new jobs. But I certainly do see a soft patch here.
chain discount factor happening issue retail store
I think a seasonal factor is part of the issue here, but you can't discount it all. Look at what is happening with chain store sales. They've been pretty weak. Some of it (weak retail employment) is real.
auto despite disappear fact fell happen incentives likely limited question raises sales
I think it was interesting that sales fell despite the fact that we had limited auto incentives in November. It raises the question of what is likely to happen once these incentives disappear entirely.
bounce clearly december fed hike hurricane puts rate report shows
I think this report clearly shows that we got a hurricane bounce back. It also puts the possibility of a Fed rate hike in December back in play.
apply employment gravity laws monetary report shows
I think this employment report shows that the laws of gravity do apply to monetary policy,
chairman coffin cut greenspan move nail notion numbers percentage regular wish
I think these numbers pretty much put a nail in the coffin of the notion that a 75 basis-point (three-quarters of a percentage point) cut will occur. I think (Fed Chairman Alan) Greenspan will get his wish for a move at the regular meeting, but they will do a 50 basis-point (half-point) cut.
drive economy fed numbers potential slowing
I think these numbers have the potential to drive the Fed to do an inter-meeting cut. The economy is slowing down, and I think we'll see more of this before it's over.
seeds soft
I think the seeds are in place for a soft landing.