Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
consumer dissecting expected fairly inventory markets nervous next prospects quarter risk slower spending stronger
I think the risk is the downside, not the upside, ... I think the markets are fairly nervous about the prospects for growth. They're going to be dissecting the number. If we have slower than expected consumer spending and stronger than expected inventory growth, that's not going to bode well for the next quarter or so.
claims eating economists fairly humble initial month pie realize relationship stable weekend weekly
Many economists will end up eating humble pie this weekend because, while the relationship between the weekly initial unemployment claims and non-farm payrolls is fairly robust, we should also realize that it is not always a stable relationship from month to month.
adjust employment fairly numbers strong
We know those numbers were contaminated because of the hurricanes. After you adjust for the hurricanes, you come away with a fairly strong employment outlook.
bite cause debate doubt economy fairly growing percent remains whether
I don't have any doubt it's going to bite. The debate is whether it'll bite enough to cause a recession, and I don't think so. Because the economy remains fairly strong, it can withstand these one-two punches. If we were growing at 1 or 2 percent and we got this same one-two punches, the ref would tell everyone to go home.
companies competition fairly giving global passing preventing protection slowing though
What is giving us protection is all the global competition that we have. That is preventing companies from passing on most of the costs. Even though productivity has been slowing down, it's still fairly significant.
admit continue eye fairly far federal funds greenspan notion percentage quarter quickly raise rate rates risen
Yes, Greenspan does admit the obvious, that the real federal funds rate has risen considerably, but he quickly concludes that the rate 'remains fairly low'. This is Fed-speak for the notion that the Fed will continue to raise rates by a quarter percentage point...as far as the eye can see.
distorted fair jobs maybe report
I think it's fair to say it'll be the least important or most distorted jobs report in memory. Maybe both.
april checks clear closer people start tend
I think we'll see a clear acceleration of refund payments as we get closer to the April deadline, when the checks really start to flow. People tend to procrastinate.
beginning certainly forecast million patch soft stands year
I think we will get that bump. I think this is temporary. My forecast at the beginning of the year still stands for 2.5 million new jobs. But I certainly do see a soft patch here.
chain discount factor happening issue retail store
I think a seasonal factor is part of the issue here, but you can't discount it all. Look at what is happening with chain store sales. They've been pretty weak. Some of it (weak retail employment) is real.
auto despite disappear fact fell happen incentives likely limited question raises sales
I think it was interesting that sales fell despite the fact that we had limited auto incentives in November. It raises the question of what is likely to happen once these incentives disappear entirely.
bounce clearly december fed hike hurricane puts rate report shows
I think this report clearly shows that we got a hurricane bounce back. It also puts the possibility of a Fed rate hike in December back in play.
apply employment gravity laws monetary report shows
I think this employment report shows that the laws of gravity do apply to monetary policy,
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I think these numbers pretty much put a nail in the coffin of the notion that a 75 basis-point (three-quarters of a percentage point) cut will occur. I think (Fed Chairman Alan) Greenspan will get his wish for a move at the regular meeting, but they will do a 50 basis-point (half-point) cut.