Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
creeping housing rates seeing
You're seeing inventories creeping up and affordability pinching more and more, and you're seeing long-term rates creeping up. All that suggests a trimming of housing activity.
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The report illustrates the fact that housing is not defying gravity and is not likely to do so this year. We're going to see chipping away of housing.
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Recent speculation about the demise of the housing boom has been greatly exaggerated.
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Investors have become completely convinced that we need to see the housing canary buckle under a little bit. If the housing market softens, then investors will view that as the canary in the cave that indicates that central bankers will not have to be as aggressive.
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Real new home sale prices and existing-home sale prices have been rising very sharply. When that starts to give way and we don't have the equity market picking up where housing left off, that's another reason the economic expansion will be gradual.
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Reading through the housing tea leaves suggests that the housing boom is becoming a bit long in the tooth. And while this outcome does not necessarily signal a collapse in activity just around the corner, it does suggest that the housing sector's best days are probably behind us.
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If housing is starting to weaken and manufacturing is not turning around, obviously it spells trouble for the economy.
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Although it's not particularly good news for the housing market, the fact that you're seeing weakness here shows that monetary policy is working and the (Fed) would not have to blunt the economy with more hikes than the market has been anticipating.
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This is a sign that the housing market is not exempt from the laws of gravity,
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I would say that momentum (in the housing market) probably will not continue, since you don't see the same strength in permits that you do in construction,
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The housing market is resilient, still going strong, but it would be a mistake to ignore the weakness in existing sales and assume everything is copasetic.
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One of the pillars of strength of the housing market is the fact of the tax-advantaged nature of the asset. To the extent that you chip away at that, you would see housing somewhat negatively impacted.
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For the equity market, this is somewhat good news because certainly (the report) is an important button for the Federal Reserve to see if its policies are working and that housing is slowing down, as it would be expected to do so, with all the hikes in short-term interest rates.
higher housing mortgage question rates shine
There's no question these higher mortgage rates will take some of the shine off the resiliency in the housing market,