Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
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When the economy is creating 200,000 new jobs a month, we can tolerate $65 to $70 a barrel oil. It masks the impact on consumer confidence.
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The decline in hours means the economy will be limping along once again. Every tenth of an hour lost has the same economic impact as losing 200,000 jobs.
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Given our forecast, we do not expect that this statistical release will have much impact on the policy debate when the Fed meets,
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The good news is that if so many people are entering the labor force it must mean that they are perceiving an improvement in the economy's prospects, ... The bad news, however, is that if too many people become optimistic about their job prospects, then the unemployment rate will continue to push higher. And the higher unemployment rate does have a damaging impact on consumers. They see it and they think, 'I shouldn't be spending money.' That's one of reason the unemployment rate is so important. It's the one that drives what happens on main street.
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We will eventually see the negative impact of rising rates -- we can't dodge that bullet -- but doesn't usually happen at the beginning of the cycle. I'm not sure we will continue to see the market beating expectations by these margins, but I don't see the market collapsing in the next month or so.
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Anything that causes people to spend more time thinking about what they do will clearly have an impact on productivity. The good news is this is not a permanent situation -- these things have a way of clearing themselves up. But will it be completely inconsequential? I don't think so.
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I think a 0.2 percent decline in economic growth due Katrina's impact on oil and the regional economy is a realistic assumption,
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Higher mortgage rates are having the expected impact on the housing market.
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The impact of higher energy prices is starting to bite corporate America. It's either going to raise costs or lower demand.
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I think we'll see a clear acceleration of refund payments as we get closer to the April deadline, when the checks really start to flow. People tend to procrastinate.
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I think we will get that bump. I think this is temporary. My forecast at the beginning of the year still stands for 2.5 million new jobs. But I certainly do see a soft patch here.
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I think a seasonal factor is part of the issue here, but you can't discount it all. Look at what is happening with chain store sales. They've been pretty weak. Some of it (weak retail employment) is real.
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I think it was interesting that sales fell despite the fact that we had limited auto incentives in November. It raises the question of what is likely to happen once these incentives disappear entirely.
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I think this report clearly shows that we got a hurricane bounce back. It also puts the possibility of a Fed rate hike in December back in play.