Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
equity market oil positive potential prices rising
Oil prices have not been a positive for the equity market with the potential for rising inflation.
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The best way to describe this report is 'holy cow,' ... This is a great report. We have Alan Greenspan a little bit worried about inflation and certainly the financial markets will realize that those worries certainly continue to prove to be unfounded.
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The new-home sales market is the canary in the coal mine. Builders have a better clue as to what the right price is to move a house.
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The bidding fever that was present a year or so ago has all but disappeared, and that's another sign that this market is slowing.
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Investors have become completely convinced that we need to see the housing canary buckle under a little bit. If the housing market softens, then investors will view that as the canary in the cave that indicates that central bankers will not have to be as aggressive.
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He not only was articulate in his views, but justified his views without making financial markets balk. He was impressive, maybe not as impressive as Greenspan, but Greenspan had 18 years to practice.
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The equity market wants someone who controls inflation, but not to the point where they go overboard.
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Real new home sale prices and existing-home sale prices have been rising very sharply. When that starts to give way and we don't have the equity market picking up where housing left off, that's another reason the economic expansion will be gradual.
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These figures strongly suggest that the labor market recovery train is still not even at the train station as of yet.
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The movement in labor market conditions is a lot more important than the movement in energy prices. Only when labor market conditions are deteriorating have we historically seen that energy prices have an impact.
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The labor market seems to be improving, but still at such slow pace, it's probably too early to start celebrating.
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Since the beginning of this year, the economy has been recovering gradually....In that environment, a gradually rising stock market would be justified. Instead we got a sharp decline. Can we justify this rally? Absolutely....But we can't justify a thousand-point increase every week.
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I think that if the Fed goes back to normal language about 'measured pace' (of rate hikes), it becomes a secondary story, ... It is only becoming a big story because of the uncertainty about what they were going to do. The equity markets will be looking for language here again. If it talks too harshly about inflationary pressures, it could be unfriendly for stocks.
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I think the markets probably overreacted when the Federal Reserve first moved toward a neutral operating directive. When Alan Greenspan spoke this time, I think the reality set in and that is, yes, the central bank has a neutral directive, but it's more like an ultra-right (hawkish) form of neutral directive. ... Any time they get an excuse to raise rates, they're going to take it.