Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
consumer dissecting expected fairly inventory markets nervous next prospects quarter risk slower spending stronger
I think the risk is the downside, not the upside, ... I think the markets are fairly nervous about the prospects for growth. They're going to be dissecting the number. If we have slower than expected consumer spending and stronger than expected inventory growth, that's not going to bode well for the next quarter or so.
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Yes, the economy was slow and would have come within a hair's distance of a recession. But Sept. 11 was the fatal blow to the economy this year. That probably will be the most important market and economic event of the year.
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I think this is an important first step for the central bank. They didn't want to lower rates too aggressively for fear of sending a signal to the markets that they thought things were completely falling apart.
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This shows the labor market in not overheated. And you can see that in, yes, not a lot of people are getting raises.
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Today's Fed rate cut and directive clearly reflects the fact that the Fed is coming to the end of its rainbow and therefore wants to ensure that it still can convince financial markets that it still has further flexibility to do more if it needs to.
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Usually the devil is in the details. With this report, the greatest fear is that details of true labor market conditions will be found over the next couple of months instead of in this report.
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We can't ignore the trend -- jobless claims have been coming down. We're at least close to turning the corner on the labor market front.
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We still have a labor market that's deteriorating, and today's numbers epitomize that. We're going to continue to see deterioration, which will pose serious challenges to consumer confidence and keep the economy soft for another quarter or two.
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When we exclude the effects of the recent hurricanes, we have to come away with the conclusion that despite higher energy prices and a battery of hurricanes, the job market is not doing all that bad.
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With this figure, markets can remain all but assured that the Fed will continue to push short term rates higher well into 2006.
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He not only was articulate in his views, but justified his views without making financial markets balk. He was impressive, maybe not as impressive as Greenspan, but Greenspan had 18 years to practice.
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I believe that it is safe to say that this report understates the true strength of current labor market conditions.
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Even though we are close to the peak and we are still going to see spurts in activity, we will eventually see the housing market slow.
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Even though I don't think one number is going to change the Federal Reserve's mind, the markets react to data as it comes out and these numbers were not inflation friendly.