Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
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With the surprise jump in new home sales and the outsized rise in existing home sales, we now see that widespread talk of the demise of our moderate economic recovery has been somewhat exaggerated.
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Given the signs of recovery in the manufacturing sector, that won't bring the economy to its knees, but it will ensure that this will be a moderate rather than robust recovery.
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Going into this report, many analysts greatest fear was that the Fed may have lost some control of this budding recovery. The actual evidence shows that a moderate recovery is exactly what we are likely to get.
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The recovery of 2002 looks poised to mirror the recovery of a decade ago, with a moderate economic and earnings recovery following a short and shallow recession.
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This is an economy coming back, but it's going to be a moderate recovery. But we should not despair, since a balanced recovery has the best chance of turning into a longer-lasting recovery.
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Although today's employment report provides little evidence of anything resembling a double-dip recovery, it does provide stronger support for the onset of a gradual to a moderate recovery in the months ahead.
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I think we'll see a clear acceleration of refund payments as we get closer to the April deadline, when the checks really start to flow. People tend to procrastinate.
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I think we will get that bump. I think this is temporary. My forecast at the beginning of the year still stands for 2.5 million new jobs. But I certainly do see a soft patch here.
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I think a seasonal factor is part of the issue here, but you can't discount it all. Look at what is happening with chain store sales. They've been pretty weak. Some of it (weak retail employment) is real.
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I think it was interesting that sales fell despite the fact that we had limited auto incentives in November. It raises the question of what is likely to happen once these incentives disappear entirely.
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I think this report clearly shows that we got a hurricane bounce back. It also puts the possibility of a Fed rate hike in December back in play.
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I think this employment report shows that the laws of gravity do apply to monetary policy,
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I think these numbers pretty much put a nail in the coffin of the notion that a 75 basis-point (three-quarters of a percentage point) cut will occur. I think (Fed Chairman Alan) Greenspan will get his wish for a move at the regular meeting, but they will do a 50 basis-point (half-point) cut.
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I think these numbers have the potential to drive the Fed to do an inter-meeting cut. The economy is slowing down, and I think we'll see more of this before it's over.