Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
although blunt economy fact good hikes housing market monetary news policy seeing shows weakness
Although it's not particularly good news for the housing market, the fact that you're seeing weakness here shows that monetary policy is working and the (Fed) would not have to blunt the economy with more hikes than the market has been anticipating.
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Anything that causes people to spend more time thinking about what they do will clearly have an impact on productivity. The good news is this is not a permanent situation -- these things have a way of clearing themselves up. But will it be completely inconsequential? I don't think so.
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For the equity market, this is somewhat good news because certainly (the report) is an important button for the Federal Reserve to see if its policies are working and that housing is slowing down, as it would be expected to do so, with all the hikes in short-term interest rates.
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Essentially, the energy prices outlook offers almost a lose, lose scenario. Bad news for inflation if they rise and bad news for the economy if they rise too much.
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A declining deficit may be signaling a slight loss of economic growth momentum.
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This economic recovery is a lot more fragile than most of us thought.
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You're seeing inventories creeping up and affordability pinching more and more, and you're seeing long-term rates creeping up. All that suggests a trimming of housing activity.
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Oil prices have not been a positive for the equity market with the potential for rising inflation.
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The resiliency of the consumer is very impressive in the wake of so many terror warnings. One cautionary note is that, moving forward, these numbers may soften, as those warnings are still coming.
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Despite the fact that the unemployment rate remains low relative to prior economic downturns, the burden on the unemployed population has been the most severe, by one measure, since at least 1972.
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More globalization means there's more pressure to increase productivity, not to reduce it. No pricing power means there's more pressure to increase productivity, not less, ... There's so much pressure to push it higher, it will be difficult for cyclical factors to push it lower.
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The best way to describe this report is 'holy cow,' ... This is a great report. We have Alan Greenspan a little bit worried about inflation and certainly the financial markets will realize that those worries certainly continue to prove to be unfounded.
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I think it's fair to say it'll be the least important or most distorted jobs report in memory. Maybe both.
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The report illustrates the fact that housing is not defying gravity and is not likely to do so this year. We're going to see chipping away of housing.