Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
december demand gain given instead last likely percent recession time
You typically see, from the trough of a recession to the time when the recession ends, a 1.3-percent gain in payrolls, ... From when the recession likely ended, in December of last year, we've had 0.004 percent gain, instead of that 1.3 percent gain. There's a pent-up demand for labor, given such a jobless recovery.
bite cause debate doubt economy fairly growing percent remains whether
I don't have any doubt it's going to bite. The debate is whether it'll bite enough to cause a recession, and I don't think so. Because the economy remains fairly strong, it can withstand these one-two punches. If we were growing at 1 or 2 percent and we got this same one-two punches, the ref would tell everyone to go home.
decline due economic economy economy-and-economics growth impact oil percent realistic regional
I think a 0.2 percent decline in economic growth due Katrina's impact on oil and the regional economy is a realistic assumption,
consumer demand downward expect faster growing higher hopeful labor linger peak percent pressure sort turn
If you have productivity growing faster than the economy, how can you expect demand for labor to be all that strong? I'm still hopeful that unemployment won't go much higher than 6.2 percent or 6.3 percent, but where we'll peak is not as important as when we turn around. If we sort of linger at 6.2 percent, that will put some downward pressure on consumer spending.
creation damage downtown estimates follow good indicate job lots means next percent plenty rebuilding work
Preliminary estimates indicate 60 percent damage to downtown New Orleans. Plenty of cleanup work and rebuilding will follow in all the areas. That means over the next 12 months, there will be lots of job creation which is good for the economy.
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I think these numbers pretty much put a nail in the coffin of the notion that a 75 basis-point (three-quarters of a percentage point) cut will occur. I think (Fed Chairman Alan) Greenspan will get his wish for a move at the regular meeting, but they will do a 50 basis-point (half-point) cut.
alive economic growth happen imagine numbers observed percent recent remains rise sluggish towards trend underlying
These numbers tell us that the underlying productivity surge observed in recent years remains alive and well. If productivity could rise by 1.1 percent during a sluggish growth environment, imagine what can happen once the U.S. reverts back towards trend economic growth.
declining deficit economic growth loss slight
A declining deficit may be signaling a slight loss of economic growth momentum.
economic fragile recovery
This economic recovery is a lot more fragile than most of us thought.
creeping housing rates seeing
You're seeing inventories creeping up and affordability pinching more and more, and you're seeing long-term rates creeping up. All that suggests a trimming of housing activity.
equity market oil positive potential prices rising
Oil prices have not been a positive for the equity market with the potential for rising inflation.
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The resiliency of the consumer is very impressive in the wake of so many terror warnings. One cautionary note is that, moving forward, these numbers may soften, as those warnings are still coming.
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Despite the fact that the unemployment rate remains low relative to prior economic downturns, the burden on the unemployed population has been the most severe, by one measure, since at least 1972.
cyclical difficult factors increase means power pressure pricing push reduce
More globalization means there's more pressure to increase productivity, not to reduce it. No pricing power means there's more pressure to increase productivity, not less, ... There's so much pressure to push it higher, it will be difficult for cyclical factors to push it lower.