Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
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Oil prices have not been a positive for the equity market with the potential for rising inflation.
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The new-home sales market is the canary in the coal mine. Builders have a better clue as to what the right price is to move a house.
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Buyers are going to be in a sweet spot in about three to six months. The speculators who are still holding properties will be panicking by then as their carrying costs mount. It won't be a bloodbath, but that's when prices should be at their lowest.
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The impact of higher energy prices is starting to bite corporate America. It's either going to raise costs or lower demand.
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The Federal Reserve and energy prices really have the fate of the economy in their hands.
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Real new home sale prices and existing-home sale prices have been rising very sharply. When that starts to give way and we don't have the equity market picking up where housing left off, that's another reason the economic expansion will be gradual.
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But what we've seen is if you hit the economy over the head enough times with higher energy prices and short-term interest rate hikes, it reacts.
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I think the Fed certainly looks at this as building up as pricing power on the part of companies, ... But (the price index) is still within the tolerable range for the Fed. That's not to say the Fed can relax and go on vacation, but I would say they're a relatively benign.
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The movement in labor market conditions is a lot more important than the movement in energy prices. Only when labor market conditions are deteriorating have we historically seen that energy prices have an impact.
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Lower energy prices will cushion the blow to the economy from the higher prices so far. Psychologically, it helps the consumer and that means the hit to the economy will not be as great as feared earlier.
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Saying that higher oil prices have not increased the risk of recession or serious economic slowdown is clearly not the same thing as saying that they have not had an impact.
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I have to come away with the view that the drop in crude prices offered the opportunity for a relief rally, although it didn't offer that much relief.
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These results suggest that the current low energy prices should serve as an important and positive boost to overall economic growth.
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The significant number of headwinds such as rising energy prices and the prospects of rising short-term rates are taking their toll on the economy,