Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
assured continue fed higher markets push rates remain short term
With this figure, markets can remain all but assured that the Fed will continue to push short term rates higher well into 2006.
core cost early energy increases jump limited longer mature pass power pricing rest saw seeing today whenever
We still see limited penetration into the rest of the economy. It's too early to say you're seeing pricing power to pass on the energy cost increases just because you saw just a jump in the core PPI number. The world has changed. In the old traditional world, whenever you had mature expansion, you had pricing power. Today with globalization, that's no longer the case.
bank central consumer consumers continues encourage giving inflation lower numbers report spending whatever
The CPI report continues to be encouraging, ... These numbers are stimulating consumer spending by giving consumers more spending power. At the same time, lower inflation will also encourage the central bank to do whatever they need to do.
factors good
There are a lot of good factors out there.
bite cause debate doubt economy fairly growing percent remains whether
I don't have any doubt it's going to bite. The debate is whether it'll bite enough to cause a recession, and I don't think so. Because the economy remains fairly strong, it can withstand these one-two punches. If we were growing at 1 or 2 percent and we got this same one-two punches, the ref would tell everyone to go home.
burden despite economic fact low population prior rate relative remains since unemployed
Despite the fact that the unemployment rate remains low relative to prior economic downturns, the burden on the unemployed population has been the most severe, by one measure, since at least 1972.
automobile equivalent exciting financing itself months november warmer weather work
This is an exciting number, but it was warmer in November than usual. The warm weather is the equivalent of zero-percent financing on automobile sales. You're going to see this work itself off in months to come.
barometer clearly conditions employment household incorrect labor market measure relying shows
This clearly shows that relying on the household survey's employment measure as a barometer of labor market conditions is not only risky, but also an incorrect assumption,
debating early
Even though, internally, I think they are probably debating it, it's just too early to make an announcement to publicize that debate.
employment longer means period phrase report stick
This employment report means that the phrase 'considerable period' will stick around for a considerably longer period of time.
activity bit economic euphoric given january loss momentum month reflects underlying
It reflects some loss of momentum from January. Activity in January was a bit too euphoric given the underlying economic fundamentals. This month is more realistic.
exempt housing laws market sign
This is a sign that the housing market is not exempt from the laws of gravity,
adopted aggressive along continue engine fed humming inflation keeps line posture raise somewhere surprise
keeps the Fed tightening engine humming along and does raise the possibility that a more aggressive posture could be adopted somewhere down the line if the inflation indicators continue to surprise to the upside.
housing momentum permits since strength
I would say that momentum (in the housing market) probably will not continue, since you don't see the same strength in permits that you do in construction,