Barry Hyman
Barry Hyman
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There really isn't any dramatic news to come out post-Fed ? we're going to get into that earnings void, the next meeting for the Fed isn't until late June, so I think the story is how well the pullback in this market will be contained.
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I think to an extent we've taken for granted the last few Fed meetings, and next week's meeting takes on more significance, ... A quarter-point hike is pretty much expected, but I think the relative bumpiness of the recent economic news could mean the Fed will indicate that rates may not rise as aggressively last year as people had been thinking.
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I think there's a concern about the economy so I think you'll see conciliatory talk (from Fed governors). We seem to rally into Fed meetings so I would expect a slightly upward bias.
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I think we really have to get to the next Fed meeting before anything significant happens. We have to see the emphasis on a slowing economy, and that's key to seeing that there won't be an open-ended succession of rate hikes.
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The market is just reeling from all the impediments ahead of it. There doesn't seem to be any meaningful reaction to any news on the earnings front or meetings that company's are offering to tell you that things are not as bad.
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It was unanimous we'd have a year-end rally until the yield curve inverted. We wanted to close the market on a high note this year, but now we're worried that the 2006 market will have to deal with this. The next Federal Reserve meeting will be extremely critical. We have to hope this isn't predictive of a recession or a slowing economy.
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All eyes will be turned to the Fed. The market will be driven in and around the Fed meeting ? it could be a sell on the story because 50 basis points (a half-percentage point) is already built into the market.
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I think we're going to go down to the wire whether or not it's a half-percentage point (increase). If you want to maintain market stability, a quarter percentage point could keep the market at bay.
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A worse-than-expected number tomorrow will discount what happened this week. If we get an inflationary number, the market will go down, but I think it all clears up by mid-June.
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I think it's just more of the same. The Nasdaq is quickly approaching 5,000 and it's hard to divert money back to traditional stocks when the opportunities are so phenomenal in the new world economy.
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I think it's too late to be worried about where your tech stock is going to go from here. There are some opportunities out there and we are aware of the short-term problems in the marketplace with the Fed being aggressive. So, we're not looking for a very vigorous rally over the next one to three months. There will be trading rallies. But the investor, the small investor, the intermediate-to-long-term investor should use the summer time, which is seasonally weak for technology stocks, to start to accumulate an easier way into some of these great companies,
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Intel was generally positive, but I think the stock had run up into the meeting, so that's why you're not seeing much reaction.
increased market volatility
At the same time, there is this increased market volatility that exaggerates these swings.
accounting worries
There's still some overhang from the accounting worries out there.