Barry Hyman
Barry Hyman
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I think it's too late to be worried about where your tech stock is going to go from here. There are some opportunities out there and we are aware of the short-term problems in the marketplace with the Fed being aggressive. So, we're not looking for a very vigorous rally over the next one to three months. There will be trading rallies. But the investor, the small investor, the intermediate-to-long-term investor should use the summer time, which is seasonally weak for technology stocks, to start to accumulate an easier way into some of these great companies,
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People look for the summer rally, and people have always complained - well, what happened to the summer rally - not understanding that the summer rally started the day after Memorial Day. So we really have had a very good summer rally. In the Nasdaq, it went up almost 40 percent off of the bottom. The Dow went up around 12 percent off the bottom. The S&P similarly. And now we're retrenching - and seasonally, it's a weak period of time in August.
bit summer
We may need a little bit more of a washout here to get that summer rally,
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It's important that OPEC comes to a conclusion to help with global supply but it may be too late for the summer season. High oil prices do not help the economy and it will still contribute to inflationary numbers. Oil will be a continuing story to see how the price of oil reacts over the next three weeks to these increases.
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I think we really have to get to the next Fed meeting before anything significant happens. We have to see the emphasis on a slowing economy, and that's key to seeing that there won't be an open-ended succession of rate hikes.
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I think we're going to go down to the wire whether or not it's a half-percentage point (increase). If you want to maintain market stability, a quarter percentage point could keep the market at bay.
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I think it's the pattern from pre-announcements to earnings ? these are two companies (Motorola, Yahoo!) that have beaten lowered expectations, beating pre-announcements. When you expand that to the Microsoft story, it makes it even more powerful today.
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I think it's strictly short term. The market is just range bound with trading opportunities. It's all sentiment right now because fundamentals are just not there.
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I think this last quarter proves out that their business model works versus Gateway, versus Compaq, versus other PC box makers,
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I think this is the look the market is going to have this month, ... There are valuation concerns, which was brought on by Cisco, the granddaddy of all valuation concerns. Money for now is moving back toward traditional stocks.
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I think we are still in a consolidation period, ... and I think we can't afford to overlook the impact of the economic news on the market. You had a retail sales number this morning that was in line but nothing spectacular and a rise in jobless claims.
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I think we are just mired in interest-rate concerns until we get some clarity on rates.
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I think to an extent we've taken for granted the last few Fed meetings, and next week's meeting takes on more significance, ... A quarter-point hike is pretty much expected, but I think the relative bumpiness of the recent economic news could mean the Fed will indicate that rates may not rise as aggressively last year as people had been thinking.
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I think the week was excellent. The Fed, even though the reaction was delayed, reinvigorated the psychology of the market. It's reinforcing the belief that these interest rate cuts will be the medicine for the economy.