Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson OBEis a British author and expert on wine. He is considered the world's best-selling wine writer. His 1961 tasting of a bottle of 1540 Steinwein from the German vineyard Würzburger Stein is considered to potentially be one of the oldest wines to have ever been tasted...
ProfessionNon-Fiction Author
Date of Birth10 March 1939
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Ordinarily you would expect the stock market to rise or do better, but it's not, and I think the reason it's not is it's being held in check by high oil prices.
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That's the situation today, ... Since that's the case, I'd be more inclined to think this will be a negative year than a positive year.
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We're all watching the same stuff. Like sheep.
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We have such speculation in Internet stocks already that it's earnings will be keenly watched and could stir up more speculation or spur a decline, depending on their results.
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I know we were up 4 to 5 percent in the first to 10 days of the year. But the market's now up 20 percent, just like the fourth quarter.
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I'm referred to as a fundamentalist -- a person who cares about company earnings and where the economy is going -- but the truth is I'm a closet technician. I've learned something as we've moved through the bear market: The last people to find out about a problem are research analysts and fundamentally oriented strategists.
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Clearly the Federal Reserve is getting what it wanted with six interest rate increases.
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By the way, you wouldn't edit this paper, would you? I've sold it, and I'm looking for an editor. And I think you might be the guy.
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Individuals are buying stock with the idea that it will become even more overvalued. That's a sign of speculation.
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I like the large-cap technology names. Over a three- to five-year period they are going to be real winners.
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If there are lots of other signals of appending recession, take it seriously. But don't hang your hat on the yield curve.
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If there's no bounce, it's investors saying that the market has not reached a level that accurately reflects what's ahead for the economy and earnings.
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Investors become very guarded at the point that they think oil prices could take a chunk out of economic growth,
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If you separate out all the sectors of the market, it's no longer the case that technology is the most overvalued sector of the market, health care and energy actually carry higher valuations than technology now. So we are starting to get the levels overall in technology that really make some sense. And interestingly enough, if you take it even further, if you go to the individual stocks, stocks like Sun, Cisco, Texas Instruments, Oracle -- great names, they're starting to get to levels which, again, don't call them cheap, but call them cheaper and interesting,