Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson OBEis a British author and expert on wine. He is considered the world's best-selling wine writer. His 1961 tasting of a bottle of 1540 Steinwein from the German vineyard Würzburger Stein is considered to potentially be one of the oldest wines to have ever been tasted...
ProfessionNon-Fiction Author
Date of Birth10 March 1939
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The stuff that worked in the fourth quarter and the first part of this year isn't working any more, like Internet stocks, large-cap tech stocks, and other large-cap names.
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The simple truth is the economy rebounded from the fourth quarter and was very strong in the first quarter as measured by (gross domestic product). Secondly, based on what we've heard from companies, profit margins should be good.
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Almost every quarter I can remember people have come up with reasons to explain away earnings gains. The truth is that earnings are doing better, and the hope is that, because earnings are improving, companies will begin to hire and spend money on technology.
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It's encouraging, but let's not forget that the focus is on the third quarter and beyond, and that looks a little gloomier,
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The earnings picture is really good now, but, you know, enjoy it while it lasts. Third and fourth quarters of this year are going to be much, much tougher earnings seasons, primarily because analysts are not reducing those estimates and the comparisons are going to be very, very tough,
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The market is asking the question, given oil prices, given rates, given China's economy and other things, what does it look like for the economy and corporate profits in the fourth quarter and in 2005? The message we got last week was that it's probably not going to be as great as everybody once expected, but it will still be just fine.
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It confirms that as we started the fourth quarter the economy continues to slow, ... At the same time that the economy is slowing, there is ongoing tightness in the labor markets and ongoing upward pressure on wages.
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I think we're going to edge our way higher but I don't think it's going to be a barn burning.
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I think we've seen technology take a tumble a number of times and come right back. Most professional money managers look at a technology slump as a buying opportunity.
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I think what the half-point cut showed was that the Fed for the first time appears to be taking the situation very seriously. I think investors are also still mulling the move and thinking what is it the Fed knows that they don't know. Could it be worries about a double-dip and deflation? It's this uncertainty, among other factors, that's the reason why we're down today.
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It has been a solid performance, but there's still a healthy level of skepticism because stocks aren't cheap right now.
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I think the momentum of the market remains positive, but it's starting to slow.
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Just as the bond market and Europe has priced in what this tragedy means ... so too will the stock market. The real question is what happens at 10:30 (a.m. ET).
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Large is the place to be. The market has been rewarding investors in large cap, and rewarding investors on a relative basis in mid cap, but quite frankly, it is an on-again/off-again type of thing with the small cap, and the small cap is not a place to go. The market is not signaling to me that you should play it on the small cap side, mid cap is fine, large cap is definitely the place to be.