Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson OBEis a British author and expert on wine. He is considered the world's best-selling wine writer. His 1961 tasting of a bottle of 1540 Steinwein from the German vineyard Würzburger Stein is considered to potentially be one of the oldest wines to have ever been tasted...
ProfessionNon-Fiction Author
Date of Birth10 March 1939
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The earnings picture is really good now, but, you know, enjoy it while it lasts. Third and fourth quarters of this year are going to be much, much tougher earnings seasons, primarily because analysts are not reducing those estimates and the comparisons are going to be very, very tough,
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It confirms that as we started the fourth quarter the economy continues to slow, ... At the same time that the economy is slowing, there is ongoing tightness in the labor markets and ongoing upward pressure on wages.
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The market is asking the question, given oil prices, given rates, given China's economy and other things, what does it look like for the economy and corporate profits in the fourth quarter and in 2005? The message we got last week was that it's probably not going to be as great as everybody once expected, but it will still be just fine.
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The simple truth is the economy rebounded from the fourth quarter and was very strong in the first quarter as measured by (gross domestic product). Secondly, based on what we've heard from companies, profit margins should be good.
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Almost every quarter I can remember people have come up with reasons to explain away earnings gains. The truth is that earnings are doing better, and the hope is that, because earnings are improving, companies will begin to hire and spend money on technology.
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The stuff that worked in the fourth quarter and the first part of this year isn't working any more, like Internet stocks, large-cap tech stocks, and other large-cap names.
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It's encouraging, but let's not forget that the focus is on the third quarter and beyond, and that looks a little gloomier,
period technology
I like the large-cap technology names. Over a three- to five-year period they are going to be real winners.
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Speaking of financial markets as a whole --stocks, bonds and the dollar -- 'volatile' is not strong enough a word to describe them.
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Like any indicator, whether it's the Super Bowl or anything else, it's sometimes right and sometimes wrong. It's just not very rational to conclude that if January is a bad month, the market will have a bad year.
connected guess phenomena
Everything is connected but it is anyone's guess how long the phenomena will continue.
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The fundamental premise in this business is you cannot be stuck in this business. You can buy stocks for the long haul, but if the market breaks down, you're going to suffer. You're going to pay for it.
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It has been a solid performance, but there's still a healthy level of skepticism because stocks aren't cheap right now.
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I think the M&A activity is certainly the headline, with Oracle-PeopleSoft and a hangover of Sprint-Nextel,