Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson OBEis a British author and expert on wine. He is considered the world's best-selling wine writer. His 1961 tasting of a bottle of 1540 Steinwein from the German vineyard Würzburger Stein is considered to potentially be one of the oldest wines to have ever been tasted...
ProfessionNon-Fiction Author
Date of Birth10 March 1939
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Yesterday's weak ISM number shows the manufacturing sector is just limping along. Another report this week suggests that Friday's August employment report may not be very good. Worries about the economy resurface and are reflected in stocks,
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The earnings picture is really good now, but, you know, enjoy it while it lasts. Third and fourth quarters of this year are going to be much, much tougher earnings seasons, primarily because analysts are not reducing those estimates and the comparisons are going to be very, very tough,
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It confirms that as we started the fourth quarter the economy continues to slow, ... At the same time that the economy is slowing, there is ongoing tightness in the labor markets and ongoing upward pressure on wages.
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The simple truth is the economy rebounded from the fourth quarter and was very strong in the first quarter as measured by (gross domestic product). Secondly, based on what we've heard from companies, profit margins should be good.
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I like the large-cap technology names. Over a three- to five-year period they are going to be real winners.
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Speaking of financial markets as a whole --stocks, bonds and the dollar -- 'volatile' is not strong enough a word to describe them.
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Like any indicator, whether it's the Super Bowl or anything else, it's sometimes right and sometimes wrong. It's just not very rational to conclude that if January is a bad month, the market will have a bad year.
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Everything is connected but it is anyone's guess how long the phenomena will continue.
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The fundamental premise in this business is you cannot be stuck in this business. You can buy stocks for the long haul, but if the market breaks down, you're going to suffer. You're going to pay for it.
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It has been a solid performance, but there's still a healthy level of skepticism because stocks aren't cheap right now.
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I think the M&A activity is certainly the headline, with Oracle-PeopleSoft and a hangover of Sprint-Nextel,
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Their (Exxon's) profits were very strong, and December personal income was higher than forecast.
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The truth is with Harley-Davidson, like a lot of other companies, like Wal-Mart and Target, we've seen ongoing, strong demand, ... Harley-Davidson's production has had to ramp up 15 percent per year for the last 10 years. That's pretty impressive and it's all been done to meet that ongoing demand.
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The consumer price index rise was very modest. It suggests, as I think many of us have been forecasting, that inflation is in the process of moderating. The good news is investors can feel somewhat more comfortable about monetary policy.