Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson OBEis a British author and expert on wine. He is considered the world's best-selling wine writer. His 1961 tasting of a bottle of 1540 Steinwein from the German vineyard Würzburger Stein is considered to potentially be one of the oldest wines to have ever been tasted...
ProfessionNon-Fiction Author
Date of Birth10 March 1939
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Just as the bond market and Europe has priced in what this tragedy means ... so too will the stock market. The real question is what happens at 10:30 (a.m. ET).
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Ordinarily, we would have a technical bounce at this level. But then the question is, have you seen a bear market bottom? I don't know if we have at this point.
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The question is when will the earnings recovery begin and how strong will it be.
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The question I get asked a lot is what's it going to take to get investors back in the game. One is leadership, for the President to take some steps and make some statements that show he's ahead of the curve.
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Every time (crude prices) move toward $50, it raises serious questions about the economy and earnings in 2005.
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The biggest risk in 2006 is that the Fed will be seduced by worries about inflation into raising rates too high. A lot depends on what the 10-year does and while I would hope that they would take notice that it's going down in yield, the question is whether they will take it seriously or dismiss it.
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A company like Sunoco, we know their earnings will be better, but how much better? ... As a portfolio manager, that question stops you.
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The price is down some, but it's clear that oil is at a level that raises serious questions about the U.S. economy and earnings going forward.
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I think we're going to edge our way higher but I don't think it's going to be a barn burning.
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I think we've seen technology take a tumble a number of times and come right back. Most professional money managers look at a technology slump as a buying opportunity.
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I think what the half-point cut showed was that the Fed for the first time appears to be taking the situation very seriously. I think investors are also still mulling the move and thinking what is it the Fed knows that they don't know. Could it be worries about a double-dip and deflation? It's this uncertainty, among other factors, that's the reason why we're down today.
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It has been a solid performance, but there's still a healthy level of skepticism because stocks aren't cheap right now.
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I think the momentum of the market remains positive, but it's starting to slow.
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Large is the place to be. The market has been rewarding investors in large cap, and rewarding investors on a relative basis in mid cap, but quite frankly, it is an on-again/off-again type of thing with the small cap, and the small cap is not a place to go. The market is not signaling to me that you should play it on the small cap side, mid cap is fine, large cap is definitely the place to be.