Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi is chief economist of Moody's Analytics, where he directs economic research. He is co-founder of Economy.com, which was acquired by Moody's Analytics in 2005. Prior to founding Economy.com, Zandi was a regional economist at Chase Econometrics...
NationalityAmerican
ProfessionEconomist
CountryUnited States of America
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So far, the surge in oil prices has yet to do any significant damage to the broader economy. We may see some softening in the consumer spending numbers soon, but unless that translates into a weaker job market, the economy should be able to weather these higher energy prices.
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If the job market doesn't kick into higher gear soon, consumers will lose confidence and rein in their spending, and the economy will in all likelihood fall back into recession unless we're very lucky.
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The unleashing of business pent-up demand will ensure that the U.S. economy's recovery will continue, but the unwinding of consumer spent-up demand will ensure that it won't come roaring back,
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It does indicate that the second quarter was a disappointing quarter, ... Growth slowed sharply. Consumers became more cautious and our trade deficit ballooned. The economy was weighed down by higher energy prices.
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The economy is going to be hit hard by Katrina, and it is going to be hardest on consumers who are already stretched thin. With the surge in gasoline and home heating oil prices, consumers will have a difficult choice to make between filling their gas tank or spending on other things.
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Consumers will see higher prices on coffee beverages and even chocolate if the raw supplies get backed up at the ports. In agricultural products, prices of cereals and breads could decline. If we can't export the wheat and grain, then the excess supply will have to be consumed domestically, pushing down prices.
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Consumer spending growth will moderate, but it won't impede the current pace of economic expansion.
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People are able to pull money out of their homes and put it into their gas tanks. So the overall effects on consumer spending have been small.
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This is a pay back for the aggressive discounts consumers were offered to buy cars during the summer.
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Consumers are reeling from the high energy bills and that has to be watched very carefully. Another month of falling consumer confidence would be disturbing.
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It is time to move on. House prices won't rise and the economy won't fully engage until more distressed properties are resolved and put back into ordinary use.
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Once skittish businesses are turning into confident businesses that are willing and able to hire. I think the job market will improve further in the course of the coming year.
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If illegal immigration came to a standstill, it would disrupt the economy. It would lead to higher prices for many goods and services, and some things literally would not get done. It would be a major adjustment for our economy, for sure.
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The impact on pricing is starting to fade.