Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi is chief economist of Moody's Analytics, where he directs economic research. He is co-founder of Economy.com, which was acquired by Moody's Analytics in 2005. Prior to founding Economy.com, Zandi was a regional economist at Chase Econometrics...
NationalityAmerican
ProfessionEconomist
CountryUnited States of America
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I think the Fed will get rid of the reference about what to do in the future. I think they will make the statement as plain vanilla as possible, and they won't try to send a strong signal one way or the other.
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So far, it's weakening, not caving. But it's been a tricky policy to deflate housing, not crater it.
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It's fair to say there will still be deals right through the summer.
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It would take time for that to occur and during this period of adjustment -- some things might not get done -- maybe some crops won't be picked or some hotel rooms won't get cleaned.
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It's not a question of whether businesses can expand; it is a question of their willingness.
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Katrina is going to muck things up; it's just a question to what degree.
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I think what we have in store is a slow deflating of the housing bubble, not a bursting of the bubble. But if mortgage rates rise more sharply than I am expecting, then the downturn in housing could be more severe.
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The housing market is fading fast and the prospect is it will weaken further as rates move higher.
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In the fourth grade, my history teacher gave us a project: Why was the auto industry located in Detroit, Michigan? I didn't know I was going to be an economist, but I knew I was going to do something that was involved in answering questions like that one because I thought that was a fascinating question.
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So far, the surge in oil prices has yet to do any significant damage to the broader economy. We may see some softening in the consumer spending numbers soon, but unless that translates into a weaker job market, the economy should be able to weather these higher energy prices.
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If the job market doesn't kick into higher gear soon, consumers will lose confidence and rein in their spending, and the economy will in all likelihood fall back into recession unless we're very lucky.
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A lot of things have to come together to make my forecast of a slowing current account deficit come true.
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This indicates that the job market is holding together pretty well,
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In November, there will be a lot of ugly economic data out on Katrina's initial impact and that might make it harder for them to move at that time,