Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi is chief economist of Moody's Analytics, where he directs economic research. He is co-founder of Economy.com, which was acquired by Moody's Analytics in 2005. Prior to founding Economy.com, Zandi was a regional economist at Chase Econometrics...
NationalityAmerican
ProfessionEconomist
CountryUnited States of America
consumer effects gas homes money overall people pull spending
People are able to pull money out of their homes and put it into their gas tanks. So the overall effects on consumer spending have been small.
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Some 20 percent of the nation's refining capacity seems to be right in Rita's path. If that gets disrupted at all, then gasoline, jet fuel, natural gas and home heating oil will surge higher.
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In the next few months, there's no upside. And this winter, we're going to feel it more noticeably as people pay record gas prices and record home-heating bills.
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The economy is going to be hit hard by Katrina, and it is going to be hardest on consumers who are already stretched thin. With the surge in gasoline and home heating oil prices, consumers will have a difficult choice to make between filling their gas tank or spending on other things.
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It is going to be a tough winter for many seniors. Not only will they face higher Medicare premiums, but record gasoline prices and higher home heating bills as well.
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I think what we have in store is a slow deflating of the housing bubble, not a bursting of the bubble. But if mortgage rates rise more sharply than I am expecting, then the downturn in housing could be more severe.
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I think they will tighten, but there is a much higher level of uncertainty regarding this decision than at any one since they started over a year ago.
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I think the most likely scenario is that housing euphoria slowly deflates but doesn't burst.
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I think the message in this inverted yield curve is muddled. I think it is something to watch and to understand better. But I am not overly concerned.
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We don't get away scot-free, but the underlying economy remains tough and sturdy.
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You are going to spend more to drive your car and to heat your home.
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It depends on your time frame. For the next few months, it's decidedly a negative event. But in a year or so, the effects will likely have faded.
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I thought oil would have been a concern since it hit $40 but the economy has digested it well,
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I think they're going to stick to their script, that they're going to continue to tighten at each meeting.