Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi is chief economist of Moody's Analytics, where he directs economic research. He is co-founder of Economy.com, which was acquired by Moody's Analytics in 2005. Prior to founding Economy.com, Zandi was a regional economist at Chase Econometrics...
NationalityAmerican
ProfessionEconomist
CountryUnited States of America
euphoria housing likely scenario slowly
I think the most likely scenario is that housing euphoria slowly deflates but doesn't burst.
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Housing is a fault line in the economy that Greenspan is indeed worried about, but he doesn't think a housing (slowdown) will undermine the expansion.
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The housing market has shown amazing resiliency. I believe the market is peaking, but it is at an incredibly high level of activity.
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The bloom is definitely off the housing rose. Housing peaked last summer and has been weakening ever since.
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I would attach a reasonably high probability that there will be a problem in the housing or finance markets that will test the next Fed chairman.
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I think what we have in store is a slow deflating of the housing bubble, not a bursting of the bubble. But if mortgage rates rise more sharply than I am expecting, then the downturn in housing could be more severe.
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The housing market is fading fast and the prospect is it will weaken further as rates move higher.
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Housing has peaked. And all indications are that sales will weaken further in the months ahead.
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He said housing has turned increasingly speculative, and a correction in the market is coming, ... But he also said that the correction won't affect the great bulk of homeowners.
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It would undermine the housing market, and could quickly result in credit problems that would affect the entire (American) financial system.
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It is time to move on. House prices won't rise and the economy won't fully engage until more distressed properties are resolved and put back into ordinary use.
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Once skittish businesses are turning into confident businesses that are willing and able to hire. I think the job market will improve further in the course of the coming year.
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If illegal immigration came to a standstill, it would disrupt the economy. It would lead to higher prices for many goods and services, and some things literally would not get done. It would be a major adjustment for our economy, for sure.
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The impact on pricing is starting to fade.