Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi is chief economist of Moody's Analytics, where he directs economic research. He is co-founder of Economy.com, which was acquired by Moody's Analytics in 2005. Prior to founding Economy.com, Zandi was a regional economist at Chase Econometrics...
NationalityAmerican
ProfessionEconomist
CountryUnited States of America
consumer effects gas homes money overall people pull spending
People are able to pull money out of their homes and put it into their gas tanks. So the overall effects on consumer spending have been small.
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It depends on your time frame. For the next few months, it's decidedly a negative event. But in a year or so, the effects will likely have faded.
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We're back on track after the ill effects of the hurricanes. But it is also fair to conclude that global competition and corporate layoffs are weighing on job growth.
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This suggests that the economy has largely shrugged off the ill effects of the hurricanes. Christmas will turn out better than expected.
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I think what we have in store is a slow deflating of the housing bubble, not a bursting of the bubble. But if mortgage rates rise more sharply than I am expecting, then the downturn in housing could be more severe.
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I think they will tighten, but there is a much higher level of uncertainty regarding this decision than at any one since they started over a year ago.
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I think the most likely scenario is that housing euphoria slowly deflates but doesn't burst.
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I think the message in this inverted yield curve is muddled. I think it is something to watch and to understand better. But I am not overly concerned.
economy remains tough underlying
We don't get away scot-free, but the underlying economy remains tough and sturdy.
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You are going to spend more to drive your car and to heat your home.
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I thought oil would have been a concern since it hit $40 but the economy has digested it well,
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I think they're going to stick to their script, that they're going to continue to tighten at each meeting.
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Katrina is going to muck things up; it's just a question to what degree.
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I suspect this is a pause and we still see a resumption of top line growth and, ultimately, better hiring in tech.