Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi is chief economist of Moody's Analytics, where he directs economic research. He is co-founder of Economy.com, which was acquired by Moody's Analytics in 2005. Prior to founding Economy.com, Zandi was a regional economist at Chase Econometrics...
NationalityAmerican
ProfessionEconomist
CountryUnited States of America
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Housing is a fault line in the economy that Greenspan is indeed worried about, but he doesn't think a housing (slowdown) will undermine the expansion.
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Broadly speaking, the economy is in a pretty good place. But it's no longer obvious what the next step should be. Now it gets a lot more complicated.
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If you add up all the energy that flows through the region, it accounts for about a third of the nation's supply.
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It depends on your time frame. For the next few months, it's decidedly a negative event. But in a year or so, the effects will likely have faded.
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My sense is, there will be more inflationary pressures going forward.
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Implicitly, ... 'I can keep raising rates, and most homeowners won't suffer.'
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They don't have Greenspan's practical edge to them, but they all have academic and government policy experience. I hesitate to say they won't live up to Greenspan, but that would be hoping for an awful lot.
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This Administration is trying to change the whole intellectual basis for fiscal policy that Alan Greenspan enforced when deficits were large in the early 1990s. We got fiscal discipline through the idea that deficits matter. That's been flipped on its head.
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Part of the problem that all of tech is having with respect to jobs is they significantly over-hired during the boom times and to some degree the past few years has been payback for overaggressive hiring. But I think that process is largely over and we should see slightly better job growth in tech by this time next year.
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The housing market has shown amazing resiliency. I believe the market is peaking, but it is at an incredibly high level of activity.
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Businesses are stepping up. They're flush, and they're increasingly confident.
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Most likely the higher prices will slow growth, ... But there is the growing threat that we get a combination of slower growth and higher inflation.
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The economic data in the next couple of months will look pretty weak. There will be significant political pressure on the Fed not to tighten.
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At some point you will get a combination of falling values combined with rising payments on adjustable mortgages, which will result in more bankruptcy. For these areas of the country that are enjoying such wonderful conditions right now, it will become much less wonderful a few years down the road.