Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi is chief economist of Moody's Analytics, where he directs economic research. He is co-founder of Economy.com, which was acquired by Moody's Analytics in 2005. Prior to founding Economy.com, Zandi was a regional economist at Chase Econometrics...
NationalityAmerican
ProfessionEconomist
CountryUnited States of America
consumer effects gas homes money overall people pull spending
People are able to pull money out of their homes and put it into their gas tanks. So the overall effects on consumer spending have been small.
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There is not enough uncertainty about Fed rate hikes?. That causes people to take on too much risk.
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In the next few months, there's no upside. And this winter, we're going to feel it more noticeably as people pay record gas prices and record home-heating bills.
coast moving people
In Florida, people are moving up the coast
change increase pay people prepare thinking
At best, people should prepare for no pay increase and no bonus, something they have been getting a lot of. At worst, they should be thinking they may need to change occupations.
adjustment asking difficult economy economy-and-economics force four full grow job labor leave market means people process similar three
It's similar to asking a big part of the labor force to leave. In today's economy where the job market is at capacity, asking people to leave means the economy will not grow as fast. In fact, there could be a very difficult adjustment over the first three to four years when this process is in full swing.
people responding
People are responding to the escalating prices: They're moving.
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The Fed chair doesn't matter a lot to the average person in normal times. He matters an awful lot when things aren't going well -- when the financial markets freeze, or there's a 9/11 or Y2K or Iraq war. When people lose confidence, the Fed chairman is vital to restoring confidence and ensuring functioning financial markets and economy.
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I think what we have in store is a slow deflating of the housing bubble, not a bursting of the bubble. But if mortgage rates rise more sharply than I am expecting, then the downturn in housing could be more severe.
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I think they will tighten, but there is a much higher level of uncertainty regarding this decision than at any one since they started over a year ago.
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I think the most likely scenario is that housing euphoria slowly deflates but doesn't burst.
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I think the message in this inverted yield curve is muddled. I think it is something to watch and to understand better. But I am not overly concerned.
economy remains tough underlying
We don't get away scot-free, but the underlying economy remains tough and sturdy.
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You are going to spend more to drive your car and to heat your home.