Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi is chief economist of Moody's Analytics, where he directs economic research. He is co-founder of Economy.com, which was acquired by Moody's Analytics in 2005. Prior to founding Economy.com, Zandi was a regional economist at Chase Econometrics...
NationalityAmerican
ProfessionEconomist
CountryUnited States of America
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I think they will tighten, but there is a much higher level of uncertainty regarding this decision than at any one since they started over a year ago.
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If there's any disruption anywhere, actual or perceived, prices go higher -- which reflects the very thin excess capacity in the global oil market. Clearly, the record-high levels for energy prices meant a windfall for related industries.
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That's right where the Fed would like to see it, ... It would take a good year of that level of monthly growth before the job market tightens to the degree where inflation concerns would become more paramount.
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The housing market has shown amazing resiliency. I believe the market is peaking, but it is at an incredibly high level of activity.
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I think what we have in store is a slow deflating of the housing bubble, not a bursting of the bubble. But if mortgage rates rise more sharply than I am expecting, then the downturn in housing could be more severe.
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I think the most likely scenario is that housing euphoria slowly deflates but doesn't burst.
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I think the message in this inverted yield curve is muddled. I think it is something to watch and to understand better. But I am not overly concerned.
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People are able to pull money out of their homes and put it into their gas tanks. So the overall effects on consumer spending have been small.
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We don't get away scot-free, but the underlying economy remains tough and sturdy.
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You are going to spend more to drive your car and to heat your home.
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It depends on your time frame. For the next few months, it's decidedly a negative event. But in a year or so, the effects will likely have faded.
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I thought oil would have been a concern since it hit $40 but the economy has digested it well,
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I think they're going to stick to their script, that they're going to continue to tighten at each meeting.
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Katrina is going to muck things up; it's just a question to what degree.