Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi is chief economist of Moody's Analytics, where he directs economic research. He is co-founder of Economy.com, which was acquired by Moody's Analytics in 2005. Prior to founding Economy.com, Zandi was a regional economist at Chase Econometrics...
NationalityAmerican
ProfessionEconomist
CountryUnited States of America
billion china easing fact post sign simply states stems surplus time trade united year
Fundamentally, though, it stems from the fact that China will post a $250 billion surplus on its trade with the United States this year and there's simply no sign of that easing any time soon.
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This could drive unemployment lower and create more wage pressure.
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One of the things voters will have to sort out is which statistic matters more.
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It undermines growth at the same time that it fans inflation.
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It's measurable but very manageable. But the strike has to come to an end, or the costs will mount.
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There needs to be continued and significant further revaluation of the yuan.
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The bloom is definitely off the housing rose. Housing peaked last summer and has been weakening ever since.
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Given the recent surge in energy prices and higher medical costs, many will not be made whole by the increase. The increase is backwards looking; it represents inflation over the last year. In the near term, inflation will be greater.
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I would attach a reasonably high probability that there will be a problem in the housing or finance markets that will test the next Fed chairman.
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If underlying inflation begins to percolate higher, that will mean we will have to struggle with rising prices and higher interest rates.
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This is a significant economic event. This is much more substantial than any other natural disaster that the U.S. has experienced.
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I think they will tighten, but there is a much higher level of uncertainty regarding this decision than at any one since they started over a year ago.
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On the national level, I think you'll see weakness in jobs figures for September, October and maybe even November.
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I don't really put too much weight on the big ups and downs in the energy prices. And food prices also fell. That probably is related to the warm winter weather, and we can't count on that continuing for very long, either.