Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi is chief economist of Moody's Analytics, where he directs economic research. He is co-founder of Economy.com, which was acquired by Moody's Analytics in 2005. Prior to founding Economy.com, Zandi was a regional economist at Chase Econometrics...
NationalityAmerican
ProfessionEconomist
CountryUnited States of America
fed november pause response
If the Fed were going to pause in response to Katrina, it probably would be in November and December,
difficult economic given inflation
Given the crosscurrents in the economic inflation data, it will be difficult for him to be clear-cut.
decline percentage
You have to go back 25 years to find a decline that is as significant on a percentage basis.
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Broadly speaking, the economy is in a pretty good place. But it's no longer obvious what the next step should be. Now it gets a lot more complicated.
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As the memory of the tech bust fades, we seem to be getting better and better job growth.
areas combined conditions country enjoying falling few less point result rising values wonderful
At some point you will get a combination of falling values combined with rising payments on adjustable mortgages, which will result in more bankruptcy. For these areas of the country that are enjoying such wonderful conditions right now, it will become much less wonderful a few years down the road.
coast confident due energy expansion gulf higher impact indication job market outside remain
There is no indication that the job market outside of the impacted Gulf Coast has skipped a beat. The hurricanes are having an impact due to the higher energy prices, but I think we can be confident the expansion will remain on track.
causes fed people rate
There is not enough uncertainty about Fed rate hikes?. That causes people to take on too much risk.
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Too-easy credit and millions of bad loans made during the U.S. housing bubble paved the way for the financial calamity and Great Recession that followed. Today, by contrast, credit is too tight. Mortgage loans are particularly hard to get, creating a problem for the housing market and the broader economy.
across banks central cover due energy fears gives global globe inflation lift policy prices
There has been a global pick-up in inflation due to the surge in energy prices, and that gives cover for US manufacturers to lift their prices more aggressively. Central banks across the globe are tightening policy in fears that the surge in energy prices will infect inflation more broadly.
pressures
My sense is, there will be more inflationary pressures going forward.
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On the national level, I think you'll see weakness in jobs figures for September, October and maybe even November.
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So far, the surge in oil prices has yet to do any significant damage to the broader economy. We may see some softening in the consumer spending numbers soon, but unless that translates into a weaker job market, the economy should be able to weather these higher energy prices.
capacity disrupted gas gets home jet natural oil percent seems
Some 20 percent of the nation's refining capacity seems to be right in Rita's path. If that gets disrupted at all, then gasoline, jet fuel, natural gas and home heating oil will surge higher.