Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi is chief economist of Moody's Analytics, where he directs economic research. He is co-founder of Economy.com, which was acquired by Moody's Analytics in 2005. Prior to founding Economy.com, Zandi was a regional economist at Chase Econometrics...
NationalityAmerican
ProfessionEconomist
CountryUnited States of America
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Defaulting on the nation's debt would be cataclysmic. The U.S. Treasury's Aaa rating is the one constant in the world's financial system. When times are bad anywhere on the planet, global investors flock to Treasury bonds because they know they will get their money back.
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Profits as a share of output are close to 10 percent. That's as high as they've ever been.
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The economy is going to be hit hard by Katrina, and it is going to be hardest on consumers who are already stretched thin. With the surge in gasoline and home heating oil prices, consumers will have a difficult choice to make between filling their gas tank or spending on other things.
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A bunch of problems that we have ahead of us are largely because of these tax cuts. They are very costly and will contribute significantly to budget deficits in the future.
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The rhetoric over China is intensifying for a number of reasons.
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It's less likely that the Fed will pause in its tightening. A neutral rate is certainly at least 4 percent and probably a little higher. That's where we're headed.
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This issue is a global fault line that will get exposed if all the Asian nations don't allow their currencies to appreciate vis-a-vis the dollar.
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Investors are anticipating measurably slower profits growth. As a result, they're valuing companies that can produce good, solid earnings in an environment where earnings are going to be harder to come by.
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Investors are anticipating measurably slower profits growth, ... As a result, they're valuing companies that can produce good, solid earnings in an environment where earnings are going to be harder to come by.
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Consumers will see higher prices on coffee beverages and even chocolate if the raw supplies get backed up at the ports. In agricultural products, prices of cereals and breads could decline. If we can't export the wheat and grain, then the excess supply will have to be consumed domestically, pushing down prices.
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The work force is growing not because employers are hiring a lot of new workers to staff expanding operations. The economy, in other words, is not being driven by businesses out there scouring for opportunity and revenue growth and pushing up wages as they compete to hire more workers.
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The job losses over the past three years have been across a wide range of industries and from coast to coast. And if you've lost your job, in all likelihood you will remain unemployed for longer than in any period since the Great Depression.
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The job market is as good as it's been since 2000. Unemployment is 4.7 percent, and it is falling. Job growth is sturdy, and it is increasingly broad-based and across regions and occupations. In fact, this will be the first year that wage growth will begin to accelerate. It should be a good year for American students.
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The risks are clearly that inflation will accelerate further because of energy.