Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi is chief economist of Moody's Analytics, where he directs economic research. He is co-founder of Economy.com, which was acquired by Moody's Analytics in 2005. Prior to founding Economy.com, Zandi was a regional economist at Chase Econometrics...
NationalityAmerican
ProfessionEconomist
CountryUnited States of America
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It is time to move on. House prices won't rise and the economy won't fully engage until more distressed properties are resolved and put back into ordinary use.
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If illegal immigration came to a standstill, it would disrupt the economy. It would lead to higher prices for many goods and services, and some things literally would not get done. It would be a major adjustment for our economy, for sure.
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It is going to be a tough winter for many seniors. Not only will they face higher Medicare premiums, but record gasoline prices and higher home heating bills as well.
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Most likely the higher prices will slow growth, ... But there is the growing threat that we get a combination of slower growth and higher inflation.
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Given the recent surge in energy prices and higher medical costs, many will not be made whole by the increase. The increase is backwards looking; it represents inflation over the last year. In the near term, inflation will be greater.
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If underlying inflation begins to percolate higher, that will mean we will have to struggle with rising prices and higher interest rates.
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I don't really put too much weight on the big ups and downs in the energy prices. And food prices also fell. That probably is related to the warm winter weather, and we can't count on that continuing for very long, either.
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So far, the surge in oil prices has yet to do any significant damage to the broader economy. We may see some softening in the consumer spending numbers soon, but unless that translates into a weaker job market, the economy should be able to weather these higher energy prices.
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The surge in energy prices we have seen to date will be partially passed through to consumers.
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Consumers will see higher prices on coffee beverages and even chocolate if the raw supplies get backed up at the ports. In agricultural products, prices of cereals and breads could decline. If we can't export the wheat and grain, then the excess supply will have to be consumed domestically, pushing down prices.
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In the next few months, there's no upside. And this winter, we're going to feel it more noticeably as people pay record gas prices and record home-heating bills.
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If there's any disruption anywhere, actual or perceived, prices go higher -- which reflects the very thin excess capacity in the global oil market. Clearly, the record-high levels for energy prices meant a windfall for related industries.
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if the financial markets were reeling and the images from the Gulf were getting worse instead of better, if energy prices were rising instead of falling. But given the economic data and financial markets, there's no reason to make a symbolic move.
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Once skittish businesses are turning into confident businesses that are willing and able to hire. I think the job market will improve further in the course of the coming year.