Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi is chief economist of Moody's Analytics, where he directs economic research. He is co-founder of Economy.com, which was acquired by Moody's Analytics in 2005. Prior to founding Economy.com, Zandi was a regional economist at Chase Econometrics...
NationalityAmerican
ProfessionEconomist
CountryUnited States of America
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It is time to move on. House prices won't rise and the economy won't fully engage until more distressed properties are resolved and put back into ordinary use.
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It depends on your time frame. For the next few months, it's decidedly a negative event. But in a year or so, the effects will likely have faded.
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Part of the problem that all of tech is having with respect to jobs is they significantly over-hired during the boom times and to some degree the past few years has been payback for overaggressive hiring. But I think that process is largely over and we should see slightly better job growth in tech by this time next year.
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Fundamentally, though, it stems from the fact that China will post a $250 billion surplus on its trade with the United States this year and there's simply no sign of that easing any time soon.
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It undermines growth at the same time that it fans inflation.
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It would take time for that to occur and during this period of adjustment -- some things might not get done -- maybe some crops won't be picked or some hotel rooms won't get cleaned.
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Once skittish businesses are turning into confident businesses that are willing and able to hire. I think the job market will improve further in the course of the coming year.
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If illegal immigration came to a standstill, it would disrupt the economy. It would lead to higher prices for many goods and services, and some things literally would not get done. It would be a major adjustment for our economy, for sure.
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The impact on pricing is starting to fade.
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And you know at these kind of prices, there's lots of money to be made. So I'm sure they're gonna work triple overtime to get their facilities up and running again.
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The Fed is growing more uncomfortable about inflation, ... This is a more hawkish statement and signals that more tightening is on the way.
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I think the most likely scenario is that housing euphoria slowly deflates but doesn't burst.
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All these statistics reflect the full force of the hurricanes on the broader economy and we will probably have another month of ugly statistics.
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The job market is getting tight enough that employees will regain some negotiating power and some modest improvement in wage growth next year.