Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi is chief economist of Moody's Analytics, where he directs economic research. He is co-founder of Economy.com, which was acquired by Moody's Analytics in 2005. Prior to founding Economy.com, Zandi was a regional economist at Chase Econometrics...
NationalityAmerican
ProfessionEconomist
CountryUnited States of America
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The job market is getting tight enough that employees will regain some negotiating power and some modest improvement in wage growth next year.
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Broadly speaking, the economy is in a pretty good place. But it's no longer obvious what the next step should be. Now it gets a lot more complicated.
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It depends on your time frame. For the next few months, it's decidedly a negative event. But in a year or so, the effects will likely have faded.
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Part of the problem that all of tech is having with respect to jobs is they significantly over-hired during the boom times and to some degree the past few years has been payback for overaggressive hiring. But I think that process is largely over and we should see slightly better job growth in tech by this time next year.
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The economic data in the next couple of months will look pretty weak. There will be significant political pressure on the Fed not to tighten.
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I would attach a reasonably high probability that there will be a problem in the housing or finance markets that will test the next Fed chairman.
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Gasoline, home heating prices, they are very volatile. Some months they're up, some months they're down. They depend on the vagaries of the weather ? It's warm, it's cold. The big decline I think will result in a big increase next month.
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In the next few months, there's no upside. And this winter, we're going to feel it more noticeably as people pay record gas prices and record home-heating bills.
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A month ago the markets would have interpreted getting rid of measured as meaning that a 50 basis point hike was possible. Now the market won't know if it would mean no change, another quarter-point move, or a 50 point hike is next and that's precisely why the Fed should take it out,
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It is time to move on. House prices won't rise and the economy won't fully engage until more distressed properties are resolved and put back into ordinary use.
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Once skittish businesses are turning into confident businesses that are willing and able to hire. I think the job market will improve further in the course of the coming year.
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If illegal immigration came to a standstill, it would disrupt the economy. It would lead to higher prices for many goods and services, and some things literally would not get done. It would be a major adjustment for our economy, for sure.
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The impact on pricing is starting to fade.
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And you know at these kind of prices, there's lots of money to be made. So I'm sure they're gonna work triple overtime to get their facilities up and running again.