Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley is a Canadian singer-songwriter associated with the band The Lowest of the Low. Stanley also performs as a solo artist, sometimes in collaboration with violinist Carla MacNeil...
attitudes beginning catch consumer missed watch
The consumer never really missed a beat, and now attitudes are beginning to catch up to reality. Once again, watch what they do, not what they say.
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The durable goods report for December was extremely strong. The headline rise of 1.3 percent was decent, but some of the underlying statistics were even more impressive.
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January auto sales were clearly much better than expected. We are on a pace to see a month-to-month increase in the seasonally adjusted sales pace, perhaps to around 17.7 million units or so.
calendar data indication move number point poised prior range reaching settling
However, we are reaching a point on the calendar when the data should be settling down and there is no indication that the number of new filers is poised to move back to the 310,000 to 340,000 range that prevailed in 2005 prior to the hurricanes.
economic growth income labor market sustain
The labor market is the linchpin of our economic forecasts, because income growth is going to sustain the consumer.
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The stock market has been pretty stubbornly hewing to the idea that the economy is slowing down and the Fed may stop soon. So to the extent that people perceive the statement as a little more hawkish, it's maybe upsetting.
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The U.S. economy is simply stronger than that of most of our trading partners and modest currency movements have proven insufficient to remedy the balance.
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The unemployment report, for once, was essentially as expected in November. The employment situation seems to have pretty much worked through the job losses associated with the hurricanes. Now, we wait for those jobs to be recovered over the next 3 to 6 months.
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We think the economy will grow stronger for longer than the market and the Fed do. We look for substantial further tightening to be required.
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The question now is what impact the hurricane has on the economy and for how long.
oil quiet time
We're in a pretty quiet time of the year, ... We've been pretty directionless today. Oil hasn't been doing much.
oil quiet time
We're in a pretty quiet time of the year. We've been pretty directionless today. Oil hasn't been doing much.
accelerate consumer core edge fed firm inflation interest likely price raising
We still do not look for the core CPI to accelerate rapidly, but it is likely to be persistently firmer going forward. At a minimum, core consumer price inflation will be firm enough to keep the Fed on edge and raising interest rates.
economy inventory levels low rebuild
We know from low inventory levels that they're going to have to rebuild inventories as economy strengthens,