Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley is a Canadian singer-songwriter associated with the band The Lowest of the Low. Stanley also performs as a solo artist, sometimes in collaboration with violinist Carla MacNeil...
energy expect fears fed guard inflation soon though time worst
I do not expect to see the Fed let its guard down on inflation any time soon even though the worst fears of energy pass-through have not come to pass.
consumer continue continues economy good momentum numbers spending surprise
Consumer spending numbers continue to be very good and manufacturing continues to surprise to the upside, which all suggests the economy has a lot of momentum right now.
closer fed fuel lighter market minutes sentiment threw
The minutes kind of fed into the sentiment in the market right now that the Fed is closer to done. The minutes threw lighter fuel on that one.
beginning gotten moderate numbers others sustained view
The numbers were considerably more moderate than we and others had expected. We have gotten back to pre-hurricane numbers. (But), I don't view this as the beginning of a sustained downturn.
economy far improving quickly respond soon
It is still far too soon to say how the economy will respond to Katrina, but so far, so good. Things are improving so far about as quickly as could be expected.
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The big picture is still that 10-year yields are up 100 basis points (1 percentage point) in basically a month, so to see a 5- or 10-basis-point pullback is not a big deal. It's just a wiggle on the charts, ... You will get wiggles here and there, and whether it's driven by surprises in economic data, or in geopolitics, oil prices or stocks is anyone's guess.
consumer looks picture
The big picture for the consumer still looks good.
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The best way to summarize the message is
against bump certainly levels quite seen time
It's certainly an interesting time as we bump up against levels we haven't seen in quite some time.
backup funds market means rate reflect surprised yields
Not only will the market be surprised if we get to a 4.25 funds rate at the end of year, but 4.25 is by no means going to be the end. You're going to see a significant backup in yields to reflect that.
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The labor market is very healthy, with both jobs and wages advancing at a nice clip. This means that households will have plenty of cash to support consumption in 2006.
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The labor market is the linchpin of our economic forecasts, because income growth is going to sustain the consumer.
appears confidence heading labor market reading solid
The labor market appears solid heading into 2006, which could have bolstered the confidence reading in January.
definitely jobs numbers soft stocks
The jobs numbers were definitely on the soft side, and so stocks are down.