Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley is a Canadian singer-songwriter associated with the band The Lowest of the Low. Stanley also performs as a solo artist, sometimes in collaboration with violinist Carla MacNeil...
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The economy is clearly advancing nicely right now and it will in our view take more than a 5% funds rate to slow it down.
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The economy has a lot of momentum. The consumer continues to do well because of the improving labor market, and businesses have a lot of cash and are getting more confident about deploying it.
early economy momentum
The economy retains ample momentum early in 2006.
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The 'economy is weakening' crew will have a field day with this report. But until we see two weak numbers in a row, I am absolutely unconvinced. . . . Disappointed? Definitely. Changing our big picture view? No.
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The economy is still growing at an above trend pace and with slack in labor and product markets all but fully absorbed, inflation pressures will begin to gradually build this year.
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The durable goods report for December was extremely strong. The headline rise of 1.3 percent was decent, but some of the underlying statistics were even more impressive.
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The levels in July were too high for the reality of what is truly going on in manufacturing. The move back in August is to a more realistic level.
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The main story was oil. Volumes and prices both rose in June, so petroleum imports jumped sharply.
december early gradual housing sales starts
It is a little early to eulogize the housing sector. Look for any deterioration in starts, sales, etc., to be more gradual than the weather-depressed December starts tally would suggest.
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I think the next really big number for the market is next Friday's retail sales figures. Up until Friday, investors are going to be focused on oil prices, the earnings, and to an extent, the election.
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It is never a happy day for the Fed when GDP is revised down and inflation is revised up.
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The overall manufacturing sector is doing OK with the exception of autos. We continue to see recovery in the industries that were hit by the hurricanes, and then on top of all that it was a cold December.
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The inventory change now suggests growth this quarter is likely to have a 3.0 handle on it rather than 4.0.
healthy moving
The ISM manufacturing index moderated significantly in December, moving from torrid to healthy territory.