Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley is a Canadian singer-songwriter associated with the band The Lowest of the Low. Stanley also performs as a solo artist, sometimes in collaboration with violinist Carla MacNeil...
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Fed officials have made clear that their heightened inflation concerns are related more to the outlook than the present situation. Thus, inflation fears have intensified even as core measures of prices have been exceedingly well behaved.
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A lot of people were hoping June was a fluke and that employment would bounce back, but two in a row is pretty tough to write off. I think market investors are now more worried about the corporate and economic outlook.
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The report follows the recent pattern of strong growth and no inflation.
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Oil is playing a positive role for stocks and the bond market today. Also, the markets are coming off a rough stretch, which makes this bounce pretty understandable.
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The bottom line is that, excluding the hurricane, to the best that we can tell, job growth continues to be good, as was made clear by the upward revisions to the previous two months.
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We know from low inventory levels that they're going to have to rebuild inventories as economy strengthens,
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I just don't think the consumer is going to roll over on the back of a cooling sector.
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Clearly, reports of the housing market's demise have been greatly exaggerated.
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Clearly, Fed officials are more worried about the threatening things that they see (energy spike, eroding slack, etc.) than the benign core consumer price index readings.
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In terms of monetary policy right now, most people expect the Fed to tighten during the next two or three meetings, but it's foggy beyond that. Greenspan didn't really say much to clarify, either in his comments or in the question period. He was appropriately non-committal, and so there's been little reaction from stocks.
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He's thinking about legacy building at this point and the one thing he doesn't want to do is leave at the top of an immense bubble and have it burst soon after he leaves. He kind of touched on it yesterday in relation to the housing market.
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Gasoline prices are coming off nicely in February, so the Michigan figure is almost certain to rise within the next month or two.
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Heading into 2006, the fundamentals for business spending in equipment and software look solid. Firms will need to invest more to meet demand.
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However, we are reaching a point on the calendar when the data should be settling down and there is no indication that the number of new filers is poised to move back to the 310,000 to 340,000 range that prevailed in 2005 prior to the hurricanes.