Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley is a Canadian singer-songwriter associated with the band The Lowest of the Low. Stanley also performs as a solo artist, sometimes in collaboration with violinist Carla MacNeil...
focused investors market next number oil retail sales until
I think the next really big number for the market is next Friday's retail sales figures. Up until Friday, investors are going to be focused on oil prices, the earnings, and to an extent, the election.
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The employment number will be the key for the stock market next week.
calendar data indication move number point poised prior range reaching settling
However, we are reaching a point on the calendar when the data should be settling down and there is no indication that the number of new filers is poised to move back to the 310,000 to 340,000 range that prevailed in 2005 prior to the hurricanes.
beginning gotten moderate numbers others sustained view
The numbers were considerably more moderate than we and others had expected. We have gotten back to pre-hurricane numbers. (But), I don't view this as the beginning of a sustained downturn.
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Some of the strength in building permits and claims may be weather-related and so this number probably won't be repeated, but there's been a strong recovery in the index since the hurricanes and by and large we're seeing that in the economy as a whole.
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The jobs numbers were definitely on the soft side, and so stocks are down.
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The 'economy is weakening' crew will have a field day with this report. But until we see two weak numbers in a row, I am absolutely unconvinced. . . . Disappointed? Definitely. Changing our big picture view? No.
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Consumer spending numbers continue to be very good and manufacturing continues to surprise to the upside, which all suggests the economy has a lot of momentum right now.
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Ironically, with all this strength, the net effect of these data on the fourth-quarter GDP number could be flat or possibly even marginally negative. This is because durable goods inventories were flat, which should more or less offset the positive influence of the stronger-than-anticipated December shipments figures. For first quarter GDP, however, these data are unambiguously positive.
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The labor market is very healthy, with both jobs and wages advancing at a nice clip. This means that households will have plenty of cash to support consumption in 2006.
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The economy is clearly advancing nicely right now and it will in our view take more than a 5% funds rate to slow it down.
fed happy inflation revised
It is never a happy day for the Fed when GDP is revised down and inflation is revised up.
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He's thinking about legacy building at this point and the one thing he doesn't want to do is leave at the top of an immense bubble and have it burst soon after he leaves. He kind of touched on it yesterday in relation to the housing market.
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Clearly, reports of the housing market's demise have been greatly exaggerated.