Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley is a Canadian singer-songwriter associated with the band The Lowest of the Low. Stanley also performs as a solo artist, sometimes in collaboration with violinist Carla MacNeil...
adjusted auto clearly increase january million pace perhaps sales
January auto sales were clearly much better than expected. We are on a pace to see a month-to-month increase in the seasonally adjusted sales pace, perhaps to around 17.7 million units or so.
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It is definitely clear that (housing) is one area where you will see less growth,
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We know that a flood of Katrina-related claims is coming. The magnitude and the timing are uncertain, but the figures will clearly be boosted sharply very soon.
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Fed officials have made clear that their heightened inflation concerns are related more to the outlook than the present situation. Thus, inflation fears have intensified even as core measures of prices have been exceedingly well behaved.
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The bottom line is that, excluding the hurricane, to the best that we can tell, job growth continues to be good, as was made clear by the upward revisions to the previous two months.
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The indicators of prices ... are beginning to point more clearly toward inflation pressures.
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The economy is clearly strong right now, and that's what these numbers reflect. In the short term, there's a risk people will pull back on spending, but that depends on how long gas prices stay high, and so far there's not much evidence the consumer is slowing down.
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The economy is clearly advancing nicely right now and it will in our view take more than a 5% funds rate to slow it down.
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Ironically, with all this strength, the net effect of these data on the fourth-quarter GDP number could be flat or possibly even marginally negative. This is because durable goods inventories were flat, which should more or less offset the positive influence of the stronger-than-anticipated December shipments figures. For first quarter GDP, however, these data are unambiguously positive.
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Katrina is a little bit different because you're also threatening the energy system. We're still trying to figure out exactly where we are on that. The near-term implications are pretty extreme.
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Some of the strength in building permits and claims may be weather-related and so this number probably won't be repeated, but there's been a strong recovery in the index since the hurricanes and by and large we're seeing that in the economy as a whole.
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While housing demand will probably continue to moderate from the torrid pace seen in the last few years, housing starts should remain well-supported in the coming months, as builders' backlogs remain near record levels and rebuilding along the Gulf Coast will eventually boost activity.
accept competitor consumers decent employed inclined mostly potential price pricing urgency
When the economy's weak, there's always a potential competitor who will undercut you on price, but when everybody's doing decent business, there's not as much urgency on the pricing front. When consumers are mostly employed and their incomes are going up, they're more inclined to accept some price increases.
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We think the economy will grow stronger for longer than the market and the Fed do. We look for substantial further tightening to be required.